Another Reason For Optimism

posted by Brian Shoemaker, Thursday, July 19, 2007

If Gamecock fans are looking for another reason for optimism, just consider Pythagorean Wins. Yes, I said Pythagorean Wins. Outside The Sidelines, an Alabama blog with a focus on statistical analysis, has a recent blog entry about the subject and the 2006 SEC season.

"Pythagorean Wins is a statistical measure of how many wins a team "should" have in a given year based on how many points the team scored and how many points they allowed."

...and...

"the underlying point of Pythagorean Wins in regard to predicting future performance is that teams that overachieve -- i.e. win more games than their Pythagorean projections says they should have -- tend to decline the following year, and teams that underachieve -- i.e. win fewer games than their Pythagorean projections said they should have -- tend to improve the following year. After analyzing SEC football from 1999-2006, it becomes very obvious that Pythagorean Wins is a highly useful indicator of future performance."

Breaking it down: According to the analysis, USC underachieved more than any other SEC team during the 2006 season. Based on the Pythagorean projection, USC should have won 4.37 SEC games last season, but only won three, a difference of 1.37. Discarding other changes -- personnel changes, schedule, etc. -- USC should be improved this year.

Read it for yourself by clicking here.

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Buck Belue, quarterback of UGA's 1980 national championship team and current sports talk host in Atlanta, has a column in Thursday's Savannah Morning News.

I don't know that there's anything new in the column, but Belue finishes the column with this:

"Pay attention. This could be the year South Carolina breaks through and becomes the beast in the SEC East. Can you imagine the scene if that does happen ... fans and players carrying the ball coach off the field in Atlanta, with a championship banner flying?"

Add Belue to the increasing number of prognosticators that think good things could happen in Columbia this year.

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USA Today has posted its SEC preview. It's long. Really long.

One quote from USC defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix:

"There is no doubt that we have better personnel right now than we've had the past couple springs, overall as a defense. We've got a ways to go. We're not there yet. We haven't beaten anybody. But we're heading in the right direction. ... We are closer. We're closer from the standpoint of the schemes, the knowledge and the kids playing with good fundamentals."

Here's the link. Print it out and read it offline.

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