Five Predictions For USC-Louisiana-Lafayette
posted by Scott Hood, Friday, August 31, 2007
1. Cory Boyd and Mike Davis Will Combine For 200 Yards Rushing:
I fully expect Steve Spurrier to come into this game with the mentality that USC will play smash-mouth football until Louisiana-Lafayette proves it can stop Boyd and Davis.
This strategy serves two purposes: 1) it takes advantage of USC’s strength at running back. Spurrier loves Boyd and Davis and favorably compares them to any other RB duo in the nation. Yes, that includes Darren McFadden and Felix Jones at Arkansas. Add freshman Brian Maddox into the mix and Spurrier has three quality running backs at his disposal; and 2) it will allow quarterbacks Chris Smelley and Tommy Beecher to achieve a comfort level with the offense in the early stages of the game before USC goes to the passing game more frequently as the game goes on.
As a result, Boyd and Davis should receive plenty of opportunities to carry the ball, especially in the first half. Maddox will make his presence felt in the second half. I just can’t see Spurrier relying on the passing game early. Once the running game is established, USC can turn to play-action passes.
2. Chris Smelley and Tommy Beecher Will Complete 60 Percent Of Their Passes:
This will be more of a product of Spurrier’s conservative approach entering the game. Spurrier will not put either quarterback in a position to fail. I know Spurrier likes to air it down the field occasionally, and he may still do that. But it’s more likely he will have Smelley and Beecher throw safe passes to the running backs circling out of the backfield and medium range tosses to the wide receivers.
As a result, I fully expect Smelley and Beecher to complete a high percentage of passes. Cory Boyd is outstanding catching the ball out of the backfield. He has 81 career receptions, the most of any Gamecock player entering the season. Davis has 26 receptions in his first two seasons. Don’t be surprised if either Boyd or Davis leads USC in receptions when Saturday’s game is over.
3. No USC Wide Receiver Will Have More Than 3 Receptions:
This is a product of Spurrier and Spurrier, Jr.’s decision to play at least seven or eight wide receivers in this game. Right now, you can count on Kenny McKinley, Moe Brown, Freddie Brown, Larry Freeman, Jason Barnes, Chris Culliver, Matt Clements and Mark Barnes to play significant snaps. When you use that many receivers, together with a run-first philosophy, nobody is going to accumulate overwhelming statistics.
4. ULL’s Tyrell Fenroy Won’t Rush For 100 Yards:
Don’t get me wrong. Fenroy is a good running back. You don’t rush for 1,000 yards in each of your first two seasons without some talent. But I’m sure he’ll figure out fairly early that trying to rush the ball against USC’s front seven is a little more difficult than Sun Belt conference rivals Florida International and Arkansas State.
Fenroy has done most of his damage against Sun Belt Conference teams. Louisiana-Lafayette has faced three BCS schools in Fenroy’s first two seasons. He had 25 yards on seven carries against Texas in 2005. Last year, he had 52 yards on 12 carries in the season opener against LSU. The following week, he had just 17 yards on four carries against Texas A&M.
Add it up and Fenroy has 94 yards on 23 carries in three games against BCS foes. That’s an average of 4.1 yards per rush, a respectable figure. But I believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will fall behind early, meaning they may be forced to throw the ball more than they like.
5. Some Gamecock Fans Will Immediately Call For Chris Smelley To Start Against Georgia Next Week:
If starting quarterback Chris Smelley posts impressive numbers Saturday, you can bet the house and mortgage that some fans will call the post-game call-in radio shows and demand Smelley start next week’s crucial clash against Georgia in Athens.
But, while Spurrier may give it about a second of thought, it won’t happen. The crowd at Sanford Stadium will be hostile, loud, obnoxious and antagonistic. Mitchell is a fifth-year senior and nearly led USC to victory there two years ago. Spurrier knows an experienced QB will give USC a better chance to win that game. Thus, Mitchell will start, even though it will mark his first appearance of the year. Granted, that’s not the best of circumstances, but, as coaches are fond of saying, it is what it is.
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There are plenty of storylines entering Saturday’s 2007 season opening football game between South Carolina and Louisiana-Lafayette. By this point, everybody has heard of USC’s quarterback situation, Emanuel Cook, Jordin Lindsey and a host of other things that happened over the course of fall camp. Here’s my five predictions for Saturday’s game:
1. Cory Boyd and Mike Davis Will Combine For 200 Yards Rushing:
I fully expect Steve Spurrier to come into this game with the mentality that USC will play smash-mouth football until Louisiana-Lafayette proves it can stop Boyd and Davis.
This strategy serves two purposes: 1) it takes advantage of USC’s strength at running back. Spurrier loves Boyd and Davis and favorably compares them to any other RB duo in the nation. Yes, that includes Darren McFadden and Felix Jones at Arkansas. Add freshman Brian Maddox into the mix and Spurrier has three quality running backs at his disposal; and 2) it will allow quarterbacks Chris Smelley and Tommy Beecher to achieve a comfort level with the offense in the early stages of the game before USC goes to the passing game more frequently as the game goes on.
As a result, Boyd and Davis should receive plenty of opportunities to carry the ball, especially in the first half. Maddox will make his presence felt in the second half. I just can’t see Spurrier relying on the passing game early. Once the running game is established, USC can turn to play-action passes.
2. Chris Smelley and Tommy Beecher Will Complete 60 Percent Of Their Passes:
This will be more of a product of Spurrier’s conservative approach entering the game. Spurrier will not put either quarterback in a position to fail. I know Spurrier likes to air it down the field occasionally, and he may still do that. But it’s more likely he will have Smelley and Beecher throw safe passes to the running backs circling out of the backfield and medium range tosses to the wide receivers.
As a result, I fully expect Smelley and Beecher to complete a high percentage of passes. Cory Boyd is outstanding catching the ball out of the backfield. He has 81 career receptions, the most of any Gamecock player entering the season. Davis has 26 receptions in his first two seasons. Don’t be surprised if either Boyd or Davis leads USC in receptions when Saturday’s game is over.
3. No USC Wide Receiver Will Have More Than 3 Receptions:
This is a product of Spurrier and Spurrier, Jr.’s decision to play at least seven or eight wide receivers in this game. Right now, you can count on Kenny McKinley, Moe Brown, Freddie Brown, Larry Freeman, Jason Barnes, Chris Culliver, Matt Clements and Mark Barnes to play significant snaps. When you use that many receivers, together with a run-first philosophy, nobody is going to accumulate overwhelming statistics.
4. ULL’s Tyrell Fenroy Won’t Rush For 100 Yards:
Don’t get me wrong. Fenroy is a good running back. You don’t rush for 1,000 yards in each of your first two seasons without some talent. But I’m sure he’ll figure out fairly early that trying to rush the ball against USC’s front seven is a little more difficult than Sun Belt conference rivals Florida International and Arkansas State.
Fenroy has done most of his damage against Sun Belt Conference teams. Louisiana-Lafayette has faced three BCS schools in Fenroy’s first two seasons. He had 25 yards on seven carries against Texas in 2005. Last year, he had 52 yards on 12 carries in the season opener against LSU. The following week, he had just 17 yards on four carries against Texas A&M.
Add it up and Fenroy has 94 yards on 23 carries in three games against BCS foes. That’s an average of 4.1 yards per rush, a respectable figure. But I believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will fall behind early, meaning they may be forced to throw the ball more than they like.
5. Some Gamecock Fans Will Immediately Call For Chris Smelley To Start Against Georgia Next Week:
If starting quarterback Chris Smelley posts impressive numbers Saturday, you can bet the house and mortgage that some fans will call the post-game call-in radio shows and demand Smelley start next week’s crucial clash against Georgia in Athens.
But, while Spurrier may give it about a second of thought, it won’t happen. The crowd at Sanford Stadium will be hostile, loud, obnoxious and antagonistic. Mitchell is a fifth-year senior and nearly led USC to victory there two years ago. Spurrier knows an experienced QB will give USC a better chance to win that game. Thus, Mitchell will start, even though it will mark his first appearance of the year. Granted, that’s not the best of circumstances, but, as coaches are fond of saying, it is what it is.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.