Five Predictions For USC-Tennessee game
posted by Scott Hood on Friday, October 26, 2007
1. USC Will Have Two Or More Sacks: The game’s outcome could depend on how much pressure USC is able to get on Tennessee quarterback Erik Ainge. Amazingly, Ainge has been sacked only once this season in 256 pass attempts. Credit the Tennessee offensive line, which includes Union’s Eric Young at left tackle, for protecting the QB like a brick wall. USC has 18 sacks in eight games, an average of 2.3 per game. Eric Norwood leads the Gamecocks with five sacks. USC certainly can’t afford to let Ainge stand in the pocket and pick out receivers. He’s completing 66 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. Ainge completed 21 of 29 passes for 254 yards in last year’s game in Columbia. That can’t happen again if USC wants to beat the Vols in Knoxville for the second consecutive time.
2. The USC Offense Will Accumulate 350 Yards Or More: Let’s face it, last week’s game against Vanderbilt may have been one of the worst performances by the USC offense in a long time. So, taking it from that perspective, there’s probably no place to go but up for the Gamecocks. Two things will help the offense improve in this game: 1) Chris Smelley will have the chance to play the entire game; and 2) the Tennessee defense has been less than stellar this season. The Vols are vulnerable against the pass (11th in the league), allowing 249.0 yards per game. Their rushing defense isn’t much better by ranking ninth in the SEC (157.7 ypg). Granted, Tennessee has faced some explosive offenses this season but they did surrender 41 points and 510 yards to Alabama last week. Spurrier’s decision to start Smelley is a smart one because, statistically, he’s been the best USC quarterback this season.
3. Tennessee Won’t Score 31 Points: The Volunteers are averaging 31.9 points per game this season, and have surpassed the 30 point barrier in five of its seven games. However, the Gamecock defense is surrendering just 16.6 points per game and has held each of its eight opponents to fewer points than it’s averaging this season. Overall, the USC defense is limiting opponents to an average of 10.5 points per game less than their average. The biggest differential is 19 by Kentucky. The Wildcats are averaging 42 points per game but managed only 23 against USC on Oct. 4. Of course, in order to sustain the season-long trend, the pass defense must live up to its No. 1 national ranking and stop the Vols through the air and make them one-dimensional. If USC can force Erik Ainge into a role of just handing off, they’ll be in good shape. Then they can blitz the gaps and work on stopping the UT running game, as well.
4. Emanuel Cook Will Lead USC In Tackles: This prediction is as easy as shooting fish in a barrel considering the likeable sophomore from Palm Beach County in Florida has led USC in tackles in five of the last six games. The stretch began in the 38-3 victory over S.C. State when he had seven tackles, one more than MLB Marvin Sapp. His 11 tackles in last Saturday’s loss to Vanderbilt matched his season high first set in the LSU game. Remarkably, Cook has become the top tackler (57 tackles) on the team despite missing the season opener after undergoing an appendectomy in late August. He returned to action in a limited role in the Georgia game before resuming full-time duty in the lopsided win over S.C. State. Cook has at least seven tackles in each of his six starts, and has 54 tackles in the last six games, an average of 9.0 per game. Cook is sixth in the SEC with an overall average of 8.1 tackles per game.
5. Mike Davis Will Get At Least 12 Carries: Davis has barely been a blip on the radar screen the past two games with 11 carries for 44 yards against North Carolina and Vanderbilt. In the previous two games, he had 35 carries for 131 yards in the home victories over Mississippi State and Kentucky. But Spurrier sounded this week like he was committed to getting the running game back on track. Which means we could see a lot of Davis and Cory Boyd with the ball in their arms on Saturday night. The fact Tennessee’s run defense is weak should help too. In USC’s two losses this season, Davis averaged five carries per game. In the six wins by the Gamecocks, Davis averaged 13.3 carries, including a season-high 18 against Miss. State. Recent history shows USC has more success when they establish the running game behind Davis and Boyd. That didn’t happen last week when USC fell behind, 17-0, to Vanderbilt by the end of the first quarter.
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South Carolina and Tennessee meet Saturday night in what essentially is an elimination game in the SEC Eastern Division. Five teams have two conference losses. By the end of the day, no more than three teams will two losses, while two teams will be on the outside looking in with three SEC defeats. USC stunned Tennessee two years on the same turf at Neyland Stadium. Can USC do it again? Here are my five predictions for the USC-Tennessee game:
1. USC Will Have Two Or More Sacks: The game’s outcome could depend on how much pressure USC is able to get on Tennessee quarterback Erik Ainge. Amazingly, Ainge has been sacked only once this season in 256 pass attempts. Credit the Tennessee offensive line, which includes Union’s Eric Young at left tackle, for protecting the QB like a brick wall. USC has 18 sacks in eight games, an average of 2.3 per game. Eric Norwood leads the Gamecocks with five sacks. USC certainly can’t afford to let Ainge stand in the pocket and pick out receivers. He’s completing 66 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. Ainge completed 21 of 29 passes for 254 yards in last year’s game in Columbia. That can’t happen again if USC wants to beat the Vols in Knoxville for the second consecutive time.
2. The USC Offense Will Accumulate 350 Yards Or More: Let’s face it, last week’s game against Vanderbilt may have been one of the worst performances by the USC offense in a long time. So, taking it from that perspective, there’s probably no place to go but up for the Gamecocks. Two things will help the offense improve in this game: 1) Chris Smelley will have the chance to play the entire game; and 2) the Tennessee defense has been less than stellar this season. The Vols are vulnerable against the pass (11th in the league), allowing 249.0 yards per game. Their rushing defense isn’t much better by ranking ninth in the SEC (157.7 ypg). Granted, Tennessee has faced some explosive offenses this season but they did surrender 41 points and 510 yards to Alabama last week. Spurrier’s decision to start Smelley is a smart one because, statistically, he’s been the best USC quarterback this season.
3. Tennessee Won’t Score 31 Points: The Volunteers are averaging 31.9 points per game this season, and have surpassed the 30 point barrier in five of its seven games. However, the Gamecock defense is surrendering just 16.6 points per game and has held each of its eight opponents to fewer points than it’s averaging this season. Overall, the USC defense is limiting opponents to an average of 10.5 points per game less than their average. The biggest differential is 19 by Kentucky. The Wildcats are averaging 42 points per game but managed only 23 against USC on Oct. 4. Of course, in order to sustain the season-long trend, the pass defense must live up to its No. 1 national ranking and stop the Vols through the air and make them one-dimensional. If USC can force Erik Ainge into a role of just handing off, they’ll be in good shape. Then they can blitz the gaps and work on stopping the UT running game, as well.
4. Emanuel Cook Will Lead USC In Tackles: This prediction is as easy as shooting fish in a barrel considering the likeable sophomore from Palm Beach County in Florida has led USC in tackles in five of the last six games. The stretch began in the 38-3 victory over S.C. State when he had seven tackles, one more than MLB Marvin Sapp. His 11 tackles in last Saturday’s loss to Vanderbilt matched his season high first set in the LSU game. Remarkably, Cook has become the top tackler (57 tackles) on the team despite missing the season opener after undergoing an appendectomy in late August. He returned to action in a limited role in the Georgia game before resuming full-time duty in the lopsided win over S.C. State. Cook has at least seven tackles in each of his six starts, and has 54 tackles in the last six games, an average of 9.0 per game. Cook is sixth in the SEC with an overall average of 8.1 tackles per game.
5. Mike Davis Will Get At Least 12 Carries: Davis has barely been a blip on the radar screen the past two games with 11 carries for 44 yards against North Carolina and Vanderbilt. In the previous two games, he had 35 carries for 131 yards in the home victories over Mississippi State and Kentucky. But Spurrier sounded this week like he was committed to getting the running game back on track. Which means we could see a lot of Davis and Cory Boyd with the ball in their arms on Saturday night. The fact Tennessee’s run defense is weak should help too. In USC’s two losses this season, Davis averaged five carries per game. In the six wins by the Gamecocks, Davis averaged 13.3 carries, including a season-high 18 against Miss. State. Recent history shows USC has more success when they establish the running game behind Davis and Boyd. That didn’t happen last week when USC fell behind, 17-0, to Vanderbilt by the end of the first quarter.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.