Getting Better All The Time
posted by Scott Hood on Wednesday, October 31, 2007
But there’s plenty of room to get better. Here are the five things I believe USC needs to improve the most between now and the conclusion of the season. If you’re a USC fan, you hope that won’t be until Jan. 1.
1. THIRD DOWN EFFICIENCY: This has been the Achilles heel of the offense for the past three weeks. USC is last in the SEC in third-down efficiency with a success rate of 36.1 percent (44 of 122). But it wasn’t always like this. The Gamecocks converted 23 of 47 third down opportunities during a three-game stretch against LSU (8/16), Mississippi State (9/18) and Kentucky (6/13).
But the percentage dropped off to a dismal 8.3 percent (2 of 24) with consecutive 1 for 12 performances against North Carolina and Vanderbilt. In the first half of the Tennessee game, USC converted 2 of 7 third down chances. Add it up and that’s 4 of 31 over a 10-quarter span. No wonder USC went eight quarters without a touchdown.
The difficulty on third downs has produced a predictable outcome – USC has already punted 45 times this season, an average of five times per game. The Gamecocks punted just 30 times all of last season when they converted 47.7 percent (72 of 151) of third downs. Overall, USC’s third down success rate has fallen 11.6 percent. That’s a huge drop.
Steve Spurrier has lamented the absence of Syvelle Newton (darn those NCAA eligibility rules!) lion several occasions this season. Now you know why.
2. TURNOVER MARGIN: I’ve said before that turnover margin might be the most important statistic in football. Few successful teams fall below the break-even mark in this category.
Last week’s game at Tennessee provides the perfect example of how important turnovers are. USC fumbled after a pass completion and threw a ill-advised interception in the opening 15:12 of the game. Both turnovers led to Tennessee touchdowns. That’s 14 points right there.
USC is 11th in the SEC with a minus-5 turnover margin. That’s shows two things – 1) they’re committing too many turnovers themselves; and 2) they’re not forcing enough turnovers. The team with the lowest turnover margin? Ole Miss at minus-8. I can assure you that’s a major reason the Rebels are 2-7 overall and still haven’t won a conference game.
USC should make it a goal to get to the break-even mark in turnover margin by the end of the regular season. If they can go plus-five in turnovers over the next three games, they’ll have an excellent chance to win all three games and finish 9-3.
3. LEVEL OF PLAY AT HOME: USC has played five home games so far in 2007. They’re 4-1 at home, 2-2 on the road. However, the last time we saw the Gamecocks on the turf at Williams-Brice Stadium they were dropping a 17-6 decision to Vanderbilt. That performance followed sluggish performances against Louisiana-Lafayette and S.C. State. USC did play well for the most part in victories over Mississippi State (38-21) and Kentucky (38-23).
But with the regular season set to conclude with contests against Florida and Clemson at Williams-Brice Stadium, the Gamecock will have to pick up their level of play to beat the defending national champions Gators and the arch-rival Tigers. Both of those opponents possess plenty of talent on both sides of the ball.
USC committed six turnovers against S.C. State and still won by a 38-3 margin. That won’t work against Florida or Clemson. If they do the same thing in either of those games, the Gamecocks will get blown out.
4. RUN DEFENSE: USC is currently 10th in the SEC in rushing defense, allowing 169.2 yards per game. All three opponents USC will face over the final four weeks (USC has an open date 11/17) of the regular season have very good rushing attacks.
Arkansas is first in the SEC and third in the SEC in rushing offense with an average of 287.6 ypg. Darren McFadden and Felix Jones are one-two in the SEC in rushing yards. Florida is third in the SEC in rushing with an average of 186.9 ypg. But their rushing leader isn’t a running back, it’s quarterback Tim Tebow, who is averaging 70.4 ypg running draws and sprint plays.
Clemson, as most of you know, features the RB duo of James Davis and C.J. Spiller. Both players are dangerous when they have the ball in their hands. Spiller had a couple of long TD runs in last year's USC-Clemson game.
In short, USC will have the tighten their belt and hunker down with some ferocious run defense over the final three games. If the Gamecocks don’t, they will find little success on the scoreboard.
5. THE INTANGIBLES: When I say “intangibles” I mean factors you can’t quantify like intelligence, awareness, hustle and scrappiness. Spurrier has bemoaned the fact USC often doesn’t play smart. In his words, they make too many “dumb plays.” One of those plays came late in the game when Tennessee was allowed to return the ensuing kickoff after Ryan Succop’s go-ahead field goal to midfield. There were multiple blown assignments on the coverage. Prior to that, USC had roughed the punter, giving the ball back to the Vols for a fresh set of downs.
Later, on the drive that produced Tennessee’s game-tying field goal, the Vols fumbled twice but recovered each time. Often, who recovers a fumble is the one who hustled the most. Here's a telling statistic - USC’s opponents have fumbled 16 times this season. The Gamecocks have recovered five of them. That’s less than one-third. That percentage must increase. Recovering a fumble is mostly a matter of awareness, hustle and aggressiveness. Clearly, USC must improve in all of those areas. They won’t become a great team until they do.
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Few college football teams manage to make it through an entire season unscathed. This year’s South Carolina teams has plenty of flaws as we have seen in the last two games, both defeats to Vanderbilt and Tennessee. But the Gamecocks are 6-3 and still involved in the SEC East race. For a team that has few senior starters, that’s pretty good.
But there’s plenty of room to get better. Here are the five things I believe USC needs to improve the most between now and the conclusion of the season. If you’re a USC fan, you hope that won’t be until Jan. 1.
1. THIRD DOWN EFFICIENCY: This has been the Achilles heel of the offense for the past three weeks. USC is last in the SEC in third-down efficiency with a success rate of 36.1 percent (44 of 122). But it wasn’t always like this. The Gamecocks converted 23 of 47 third down opportunities during a three-game stretch against LSU (8/16), Mississippi State (9/18) and Kentucky (6/13).
But the percentage dropped off to a dismal 8.3 percent (2 of 24) with consecutive 1 for 12 performances against North Carolina and Vanderbilt. In the first half of the Tennessee game, USC converted 2 of 7 third down chances. Add it up and that’s 4 of 31 over a 10-quarter span. No wonder USC went eight quarters without a touchdown.
The difficulty on third downs has produced a predictable outcome – USC has already punted 45 times this season, an average of five times per game. The Gamecocks punted just 30 times all of last season when they converted 47.7 percent (72 of 151) of third downs. Overall, USC’s third down success rate has fallen 11.6 percent. That’s a huge drop.
Steve Spurrier has lamented the absence of Syvelle Newton (darn those NCAA eligibility rules!) lion several occasions this season. Now you know why.
2. TURNOVER MARGIN: I’ve said before that turnover margin might be the most important statistic in football. Few successful teams fall below the break-even mark in this category.
Last week’s game at Tennessee provides the perfect example of how important turnovers are. USC fumbled after a pass completion and threw a ill-advised interception in the opening 15:12 of the game. Both turnovers led to Tennessee touchdowns. That’s 14 points right there.
USC is 11th in the SEC with a minus-5 turnover margin. That’s shows two things – 1) they’re committing too many turnovers themselves; and 2) they’re not forcing enough turnovers. The team with the lowest turnover margin? Ole Miss at minus-8. I can assure you that’s a major reason the Rebels are 2-7 overall and still haven’t won a conference game.
USC should make it a goal to get to the break-even mark in turnover margin by the end of the regular season. If they can go plus-five in turnovers over the next three games, they’ll have an excellent chance to win all three games and finish 9-3.
3. LEVEL OF PLAY AT HOME: USC has played five home games so far in 2007. They’re 4-1 at home, 2-2 on the road. However, the last time we saw the Gamecocks on the turf at Williams-Brice Stadium they were dropping a 17-6 decision to Vanderbilt. That performance followed sluggish performances against Louisiana-Lafayette and S.C. State. USC did play well for the most part in victories over Mississippi State (38-21) and Kentucky (38-23).
But with the regular season set to conclude with contests against Florida and Clemson at Williams-Brice Stadium, the Gamecock will have to pick up their level of play to beat the defending national champions Gators and the arch-rival Tigers. Both of those opponents possess plenty of talent on both sides of the ball.
USC committed six turnovers against S.C. State and still won by a 38-3 margin. That won’t work against Florida or Clemson. If they do the same thing in either of those games, the Gamecocks will get blown out.
4. RUN DEFENSE: USC is currently 10th in the SEC in rushing defense, allowing 169.2 yards per game. All three opponents USC will face over the final four weeks (USC has an open date 11/17) of the regular season have very good rushing attacks.
Arkansas is first in the SEC and third in the SEC in rushing offense with an average of 287.6 ypg. Darren McFadden and Felix Jones are one-two in the SEC in rushing yards. Florida is third in the SEC in rushing with an average of 186.9 ypg. But their rushing leader isn’t a running back, it’s quarterback Tim Tebow, who is averaging 70.4 ypg running draws and sprint plays.
Clemson, as most of you know, features the RB duo of James Davis and C.J. Spiller. Both players are dangerous when they have the ball in their hands. Spiller had a couple of long TD runs in last year's USC-Clemson game.
In short, USC will have the tighten their belt and hunker down with some ferocious run defense over the final three games. If the Gamecocks don’t, they will find little success on the scoreboard.
5. THE INTANGIBLES: When I say “intangibles” I mean factors you can’t quantify like intelligence, awareness, hustle and scrappiness. Spurrier has bemoaned the fact USC often doesn’t play smart. In his words, they make too many “dumb plays.” One of those plays came late in the game when Tennessee was allowed to return the ensuing kickoff after Ryan Succop’s go-ahead field goal to midfield. There were multiple blown assignments on the coverage. Prior to that, USC had roughed the punter, giving the ball back to the Vols for a fresh set of downs.
Later, on the drive that produced Tennessee’s game-tying field goal, the Vols fumbled twice but recovered each time. Often, who recovers a fumble is the one who hustled the most. Here's a telling statistic - USC’s opponents have fumbled 16 times this season. The Gamecocks have recovered five of them. That’s less than one-third. That percentage must increase. Recovering a fumble is mostly a matter of awareness, hustle and aggressiveness. Clearly, USC must improve in all of those areas. They won’t become a great team until they do.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.