Five Predictions For USC-Arkansas Game
posted by Scott Hood on Saturday, November 03, 2007
1. Arkansas Will Have Less Than 200 Yards Rushing: Arkansas running backs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones combined for 232.0 rushing yards per game this season. But the USC defense stymied the Tennessee running game for the most part in last week’s game and has shown improvement each week. USC’s numbers aren’t great (10th in SEC with 169.2 rushing ypg) but with the defense gaining more confidence each week, the Gamecocks will rise up and keep the Arkansas tailbacks under control. They’re surrendering 131.4 yards on the ground in the last five games. USC will sell out to stop the run and dare QB Casey Dick to beat them passing the ball against one of the best secindaries in the country.
2. USC Will Have At Least Two Sacks: The Arkansas offensive line doesn’t allow many sacks. In fact, opponents have managed just eight sacks in eight games this season. But USC has had some success getting to the quarterback with 19 sacks this season, five by Eric Norwood. USC won’t spend the entire game in the Razorbacks backfield but they will pressure Arkansas QB Casey Dick enough to rattle him a little bit.
3. One of the Teams Will Convert Less Than 30 Percent Of Its First Downs: Arkansas is converting 44.6 percent of third down chances, while USC has been successful on just 36.1 percent of its third-down attempts. Defensively, both teams have been outstanding. These are the top two teams in the league when it comes to opponents converting third downs. Arkansas has allowed its opponents to succeed on third down only 26.1 percent of the time. The USC defense is second in the SEC with a rate of 27.2 percent. The Gamecocks haven’t allowed an opponent to convert more than 30 percent of its third downs since the season opener. Add it up and both teams could struggle on third down.
4. Blake Mitchell Will Pass For More Than 200 Yards: Blake Mitchell appears primed for another late-season run like he had last year over the final 18 quarters when he posted eye-popping numbers. First, Mitchell appears to have his confidence back as a result of the impresive second half against Tennessee when he nearly rallied the Gamecocks to a stunning victory. Second, USC established the run last week against Tennessee, totaling 171 yards on 39 carries, and looks to have that aspect of the game pointed upward. Mitchell is always a better quarterback when the running game is working because he can play action all day. Third, the offensive line played as well as it has all year in the second half of the Tennessee game. Heath Batchelor and Seaver Brown appear to be the answer to the season-long puzzle at guard.
5. Emanuel Cook Will Lead USC In Tackles: This prediction is a layup considering the sophomore from Riviera Beach, Fla. has led USC in tackles five times in the last seven games and he excels at run defense. Defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix will likely have Cook play close to the line of scrimmage for the entire game in order to suffocate the Arkansas running game. Cook is USC’s best tackler. He’s especially lethal in the run blitz, where he has an uncanny knack to pick the right hole. Cook has already blown up a couple of fourth-down plays this season. Arkansas is the perfect team for Cook to have a big game tonight. Don’t be surprised if he sets a season-high in tackles.
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South Carolina and Arkansas knock heads in a key SEC contest on Saturday at 8 p.m. Here are five predictions about what will unfold at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium:
1. Arkansas Will Have Less Than 200 Yards Rushing: Arkansas running backs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones combined for 232.0 rushing yards per game this season. But the USC defense stymied the Tennessee running game for the most part in last week’s game and has shown improvement each week. USC’s numbers aren’t great (10th in SEC with 169.2 rushing ypg) but with the defense gaining more confidence each week, the Gamecocks will rise up and keep the Arkansas tailbacks under control. They’re surrendering 131.4 yards on the ground in the last five games. USC will sell out to stop the run and dare QB Casey Dick to beat them passing the ball against one of the best secindaries in the country.
2. USC Will Have At Least Two Sacks: The Arkansas offensive line doesn’t allow many sacks. In fact, opponents have managed just eight sacks in eight games this season. But USC has had some success getting to the quarterback with 19 sacks this season, five by Eric Norwood. USC won’t spend the entire game in the Razorbacks backfield but they will pressure Arkansas QB Casey Dick enough to rattle him a little bit.
3. One of the Teams Will Convert Less Than 30 Percent Of Its First Downs: Arkansas is converting 44.6 percent of third down chances, while USC has been successful on just 36.1 percent of its third-down attempts. Defensively, both teams have been outstanding. These are the top two teams in the league when it comes to opponents converting third downs. Arkansas has allowed its opponents to succeed on third down only 26.1 percent of the time. The USC defense is second in the SEC with a rate of 27.2 percent. The Gamecocks haven’t allowed an opponent to convert more than 30 percent of its third downs since the season opener. Add it up and both teams could struggle on third down.
4. Blake Mitchell Will Pass For More Than 200 Yards: Blake Mitchell appears primed for another late-season run like he had last year over the final 18 quarters when he posted eye-popping numbers. First, Mitchell appears to have his confidence back as a result of the impresive second half against Tennessee when he nearly rallied the Gamecocks to a stunning victory. Second, USC established the run last week against Tennessee, totaling 171 yards on 39 carries, and looks to have that aspect of the game pointed upward. Mitchell is always a better quarterback when the running game is working because he can play action all day. Third, the offensive line played as well as it has all year in the second half of the Tennessee game. Heath Batchelor and Seaver Brown appear to be the answer to the season-long puzzle at guard.
5. Emanuel Cook Will Lead USC In Tackles: This prediction is a layup considering the sophomore from Riviera Beach, Fla. has led USC in tackles five times in the last seven games and he excels at run defense. Defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix will likely have Cook play close to the line of scrimmage for the entire game in order to suffocate the Arkansas running game. Cook is USC’s best tackler. He’s especially lethal in the run blitz, where he has an uncanny knack to pick the right hole. Cook has already blown up a couple of fourth-down plays this season. Arkansas is the perfect team for Cook to have a big game tonight. Don’t be surprised if he sets a season-high in tackles.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.