A Good Regional For The Gamecocks

posted by Scott Hood on Tuesday, May 27, 2008

When 12:30 p.m. on Monday rolled around, I was convinced the NCAA would send South Carolina to play in a Regional hosted by one of the so-called “Big Three” of the ACC – North Carolina, Florida State and Miami.

But I was pleasantly surprised.

I’m not saying the Regional in Raleigh won’t be difficult, but the road to the Super Regional will be a little easier against teams like N.C. State and Charlotte.

In fact, I would say USC caught a major break. I’m prepared to say I would be disappointed if the Gamecocks don’t win the Regional.

Ray Tanner said all the right things on Monday but one thing stuck out: if USC plays as well as its capable, the Gamecocks have a great chance to win. I believe it.

Without one of the Big Three standing in its way, Tanner knows USC’s chances of making a Super Regional for the eighth time in nine years are much better than if they had to face one of those teams.

But, they don’t.

By now, I’m sure everyone recalls Charlotte’s 11-2 victory over USC in early March. But that game was played nearly three months ago when the season was barely two weeks old.

Is Charlotte nine runs better than USC? Absolutely not. That was an aberration. But were they better than the Gamecocks for one night? Yes.

This time, I expect the outcome will be different.

First, no matter who the starting pitcher is, USC won’t give up 11 runs again to the 49ers. Sam Dyson was downright dominating against LSU last Wednesday, and he certainly deserves the opportunity to start the Regional opener.

If not Dyson, then Nick Godwin will get the call. Either way, I would be surprised if the 49ers score more than three or four runs.

Second, I don’t believe the USC offense will score just two runs again. Projected starter Joe Yermal is 8-1 this season, but his numbers except for his won-loss record are not dominating.

Ray Tanner and the players we talked to on Monday claimed the earlier loss won’t matter much. While I agree with that point, I don’t believe they’ve forgotten.

Why? You never forget when you’re embarrassed on you rhome field.

Bottom line, I expect USC will win. This is the NCAA Tournament. USC is the higher seed. Anything less than a win is unacceptable.

N.C. State is certainly a notch or two below the ACC’s Big Three. Do they have more talent than USC? I doubt it. I watched some of the Wolfpack’s 10-0 win over Clemson last weekend and there’s no question it was impressive.

But lost in the hoopla over the lopsided win against the Tigers is the fact they dropped their other two ACC Tourney games to Georgia Tech and Miami.

If you compare rosters, you’ll never convince me that either N.C. State or Charlotte are better teams than the Gamecocks.

In my opinion, I see the Raleigh Regional playing out in similar fashion to the 2006 Charlottesville Regional. If you recall, very few experts gave USC much of a chance at the time to win the Regional over a talented Virginia squad.

But Phil Disher turned the entire Regional around with one swing of the bat, walloping a grand slam off the best pitcher in the ACC that Virginia officials told me was the longest home run they had ever witnessed at the Cavaliers’ home ballpark.

Disher stepped up last year again with a clutch grand slam in the Regional clinching victory over Charlotte.

So, someone needs to step up again and make plays, to borrow a phrase from football and basketball. Heck, it could be Disher himself.

Considering where USC landed, you could easily make the argument that the Gamecocks got a better draw than Florida (Tallahassee Regional), Kentucky (Ann Arbor Regional) or Vanderbilt (Tempe, Ariz.), all of whom finished higher than USC in the conference standings.

Let’s put it this way: USC’s chances of surviving the Regional in Raleigh are better than any of those three teams getting to the Super Regional round right now.

I have a feeling that come next Tuesday, I’ll be preparing to cover USC at the Super Regional.

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