An Early, Early Look At USC's 2008 Schedule
posted by Scott Hood on Thursday, June 12, 2008
DEFINITE WINS: These are the games where, in my opinion, South Carolina will have a significant talent advantage and should come out of the game with a victory:
Vanderbilt (Thu. 9/4): Forget last season’s disaster in Columbia. USC is still the more talented team. The Gamecocks had no business losing that game, and I’m taking the same approach this season. Frankly, I can’t see the entire USC offense playing that poorly again. And not just against the Commodores, but against any team. There’s a reason Spurrier called it the worst performance by an offense that he had been a part of in his long coaching career. Not only do I think USC will win, I think they will do it convincingly.
Wofford (Sat. 9/20): Hopefully, the scare in 2006 means the Gamecocks will take this game a little bit more seriously. The USC defense looked helpless trying to stop the Wofford triple option attack in that game. It’s an offense they probably won’t see again this season, so they need to buckle down and play assignment football, something they didn’t do two years ago. Talent-wise, USC should win this game by three or four touchdowns. But, the option is the great equalizer. Nonetheless, the Gamecocks should win the game.
UAB (Sat. 9/27): The Blazers were awful in Neil Calloway’s first season as head coach by finishing with a 2-10 mark. By all accounts. UAB got worse as the year went along. Yes, all those young players are a year older, but are they better? USC should romp in this one. Even if the Gamecock offense isn’t firing on all cylinders, it should still score at least 28 points, which should be more than enough to win.
PROBABLE WINS: These are the games USC has, in my opinion, a very good chance to win as long as the Gamecocks bring their ‘A” game. Every team listed here is capable of beating USC if it plays poorly.
N.C. State (Thu. 8/28): The Wolfpack will arrive in Columbia for the season opener with huge holes to fill on defense and offensive line, and question marks at quarterback. Some early prognostications say the N.C. Stat will be hard pressed to repeat last season’s 5-7 mark. In short, it sounds like the Wolfpack won’t be a very good football team in Tom O’Brien’s second season as head coach. Should a mediocre (at best) ACC team walk into Williams-Brice Stadium and beat the Gamecocks? No. Shame on USC if they drop this game.
Ole Miss (Sat. 10/4): The reunion with former defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix should be a memorable one. New Ole Miss head coach Houston Nutt is a good, if not great, football coach and should have the Rebels moving in the right direction in the always tough SEC West in a couple of years. So, USC may be catching Ole Miss at an opportune time in Nutt’s tenure. If USC shows up ready to play, they should win this one. The Ole Miss stadium is one of the smallest in the league, so USC shouldn’t be intimidated.
Kentucky (Sat. 10/11): Steve Spurrier has never lost to Kentucky as a head coach. USC has won eight in a row and 10 of 12 over the Wildcats. The trend should continue this year. UK’s best chance to finally end the losing streak came last season when it has Andre Woodson at QB. But the USC defense played one of its best games of the season in the Thursday night 38-23 win. Rich Brooks is starting over at some of the skill position spots. USC hung on in Lexington two years ago to pull out a win. This one could be close again, but I expect USC to prevail.
TOSS UP GAMES: These are the games that will determine how successful USC’s season will turn out. If USC wants to finish 6-6 again, just win the six aforementioned games and they’re in business. But if they want to progress and move the program forward, winning two or more of these games is critical:
Georgia (Sat. 9/13): Last year’s 16-12 win by USC in Athens should offer hope to Gamecock fans in this one. It will likely be the same type of game this year: low-scoring, physical, sometimes brutal slugfest. Most of the games between the Gamecocks and Bulldogs have been tight, hard-fought affairs going backto the 1980’s. For some reason, USC seems to enjoy more success historically against Georgia than they do against Florida and Tennessee. UGA will have more talent, but a heroic performance by the USC defense could tip the scales in the Gamecocks’ favor.
LSU (Sat. 10/18): The primary reason USC has a chance to win this game against the defending national champions is the Tigers’ huge void at quarterback following the dismissal of the enigmatic Ryan Perrilloux. LSU enjoyed a substantial talent advantage last season in Baton Rouge, but the gap will be diminished this year. It would have been interesting to see how last year’s game would have turned out if Jasper Brinkley had played the whole game and Emanuel Cook has hung on to that potential Pick-6. This one is at Williams-Brice Stadium. This one could go down to the wire.
Tennessee (Sat. 11/1): USC should be entering this year’s clash with Tennessee riding a three-game winning streak over the Volunteers. But a pair of gift-wrapped touchdowns in 2006 and a complete meltdown by USC in the final two minutes and overtime in last season’s meeting means the Gamecocks have lost two straight. Seven of the last eight meetings between the schools have been decided by eight points or less. Unfortunately, USC has found itself on the wrong end of the score too many times.
Arkansas (Sat. 11/8): Goodbye Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, USC is glad to see you go. Without the best running back combination in the nation, the Razorbacks should return to earth, and a repeat of last season’s debacle in Fayetteville is unlikely. Bobby Petrino is a good football coach (his candor, though, is another issue), but it will take time to implement his passing system into a program that’s familiar with smash mouth football. USC must take advantage and beat the Razorbacks this season.
Clemson (Sat. 11/29): Since Steve Spurrier’s arrival, this rivalry has gotten a lot closer. But getting close doesn’t count unless you win. In the last three years, the games have been decided by four, three and two points. In both losses, USC had plenty of opportunities to win, but couldn’t close the deal. Clemson still has more talent than USC, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. But we thought that way two years ago on the eve of USC’s first trip to the Upstate under Spurrier. This game should be a tight again.
UPHILL BATTLES: This is a game that, in my opinion, USC has less than a 50-50 chance of winning. The reasons could be varied. If the Gamecocks prevail, it will probably be considered a major upset.
Florida (Sat. 11/15): Florida QB Tim Tebow may have won the Heisman Trophy with last season’s brilliant performance in Williams-Brice Stadium. Beating the Gators at the Swamp will be incredibly difficult. This game is, in my opinion, USC”s most difficult road test of the year. And you need binoculars to find the game in second place. The boisterous atmosphere at the Swamp can overwhelm you, and it may have cost USC a victory there in 2006. Can USC win this game? Yes. But it will take a A-plus performance by USC with a less than a perfect outing by the Gators. And, even that might not be good enough. USC has to hope Tebow is off his game. The mental mistakes that occurred in 2006 can’t be repeated.
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The 2008 season is clearly the most important of the Steve Spurrier Era since it comes on the heels of a season-ending five-game losing streak in 2007 and a recruiting cycle seen by many as less than stellar. Although there’s still more than two months to go before the first game is played, here’s how I would categorize each of the 12 games on the schedule RIGHT NOW:
DEFINITE WINS: These are the games where, in my opinion, South Carolina will have a significant talent advantage and should come out of the game with a victory:
Vanderbilt (Thu. 9/4): Forget last season’s disaster in Columbia. USC is still the more talented team. The Gamecocks had no business losing that game, and I’m taking the same approach this season. Frankly, I can’t see the entire USC offense playing that poorly again. And not just against the Commodores, but against any team. There’s a reason Spurrier called it the worst performance by an offense that he had been a part of in his long coaching career. Not only do I think USC will win, I think they will do it convincingly.
Wofford (Sat. 9/20): Hopefully, the scare in 2006 means the Gamecocks will take this game a little bit more seriously. The USC defense looked helpless trying to stop the Wofford triple option attack in that game. It’s an offense they probably won’t see again this season, so they need to buckle down and play assignment football, something they didn’t do two years ago. Talent-wise, USC should win this game by three or four touchdowns. But, the option is the great equalizer. Nonetheless, the Gamecocks should win the game.
UAB (Sat. 9/27): The Blazers were awful in Neil Calloway’s first season as head coach by finishing with a 2-10 mark. By all accounts. UAB got worse as the year went along. Yes, all those young players are a year older, but are they better? USC should romp in this one. Even if the Gamecock offense isn’t firing on all cylinders, it should still score at least 28 points, which should be more than enough to win.
PROBABLE WINS: These are the games USC has, in my opinion, a very good chance to win as long as the Gamecocks bring their ‘A” game. Every team listed here is capable of beating USC if it plays poorly.
N.C. State (Thu. 8/28): The Wolfpack will arrive in Columbia for the season opener with huge holes to fill on defense and offensive line, and question marks at quarterback. Some early prognostications say the N.C. Stat will be hard pressed to repeat last season’s 5-7 mark. In short, it sounds like the Wolfpack won’t be a very good football team in Tom O’Brien’s second season as head coach. Should a mediocre (at best) ACC team walk into Williams-Brice Stadium and beat the Gamecocks? No. Shame on USC if they drop this game.
Ole Miss (Sat. 10/4): The reunion with former defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix should be a memorable one. New Ole Miss head coach Houston Nutt is a good, if not great, football coach and should have the Rebels moving in the right direction in the always tough SEC West in a couple of years. So, USC may be catching Ole Miss at an opportune time in Nutt’s tenure. If USC shows up ready to play, they should win this one. The Ole Miss stadium is one of the smallest in the league, so USC shouldn’t be intimidated.
Kentucky (Sat. 10/11): Steve Spurrier has never lost to Kentucky as a head coach. USC has won eight in a row and 10 of 12 over the Wildcats. The trend should continue this year. UK’s best chance to finally end the losing streak came last season when it has Andre Woodson at QB. But the USC defense played one of its best games of the season in the Thursday night 38-23 win. Rich Brooks is starting over at some of the skill position spots. USC hung on in Lexington two years ago to pull out a win. This one could be close again, but I expect USC to prevail.
TOSS UP GAMES: These are the games that will determine how successful USC’s season will turn out. If USC wants to finish 6-6 again, just win the six aforementioned games and they’re in business. But if they want to progress and move the program forward, winning two or more of these games is critical:
Georgia (Sat. 9/13): Last year’s 16-12 win by USC in Athens should offer hope to Gamecock fans in this one. It will likely be the same type of game this year: low-scoring, physical, sometimes brutal slugfest. Most of the games between the Gamecocks and Bulldogs have been tight, hard-fought affairs going backto the 1980’s. For some reason, USC seems to enjoy more success historically against Georgia than they do against Florida and Tennessee. UGA will have more talent, but a heroic performance by the USC defense could tip the scales in the Gamecocks’ favor.
LSU (Sat. 10/18): The primary reason USC has a chance to win this game against the defending national champions is the Tigers’ huge void at quarterback following the dismissal of the enigmatic Ryan Perrilloux. LSU enjoyed a substantial talent advantage last season in Baton Rouge, but the gap will be diminished this year. It would have been interesting to see how last year’s game would have turned out if Jasper Brinkley had played the whole game and Emanuel Cook has hung on to that potential Pick-6. This one is at Williams-Brice Stadium. This one could go down to the wire.
Tennessee (Sat. 11/1): USC should be entering this year’s clash with Tennessee riding a three-game winning streak over the Volunteers. But a pair of gift-wrapped touchdowns in 2006 and a complete meltdown by USC in the final two minutes and overtime in last season’s meeting means the Gamecocks have lost two straight. Seven of the last eight meetings between the schools have been decided by eight points or less. Unfortunately, USC has found itself on the wrong end of the score too many times.
Arkansas (Sat. 11/8): Goodbye Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, USC is glad to see you go. Without the best running back combination in the nation, the Razorbacks should return to earth, and a repeat of last season’s debacle in Fayetteville is unlikely. Bobby Petrino is a good football coach (his candor, though, is another issue), but it will take time to implement his passing system into a program that’s familiar with smash mouth football. USC must take advantage and beat the Razorbacks this season.
Clemson (Sat. 11/29): Since Steve Spurrier’s arrival, this rivalry has gotten a lot closer. But getting close doesn’t count unless you win. In the last three years, the games have been decided by four, three and two points. In both losses, USC had plenty of opportunities to win, but couldn’t close the deal. Clemson still has more talent than USC, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. But we thought that way two years ago on the eve of USC’s first trip to the Upstate under Spurrier. This game should be a tight again.
UPHILL BATTLES: This is a game that, in my opinion, USC has less than a 50-50 chance of winning. The reasons could be varied. If the Gamecocks prevail, it will probably be considered a major upset.
Florida (Sat. 11/15): Florida QB Tim Tebow may have won the Heisman Trophy with last season’s brilliant performance in Williams-Brice Stadium. Beating the Gators at the Swamp will be incredibly difficult. This game is, in my opinion, USC”s most difficult road test of the year. And you need binoculars to find the game in second place. The boisterous atmosphere at the Swamp can overwhelm you, and it may have cost USC a victory there in 2006. Can USC win this game? Yes. But it will take a A-plus performance by USC with a less than a perfect outing by the Gators. And, even that might not be good enough. USC has to hope Tebow is off his game. The mental mistakes that occurred in 2006 can’t be repeated.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.