Five Predictions For The USC-UAB Game
posted by Scott Hood, Friday, September 26, 2008
1. USC Will Throw For More Than 300 Passing Yards: Lost amidst the furor over USC’s offensive struggles and the 12 turnovers is the fact that the Gamecocks have experienced some success throwing the ball this season. USC is third in the SEC in passing offense with 226.5 yards per game. Chris Smelley is currently among the top four passers in the SEC right now. UAB, meanwhile, has one of the worst secondaries in the country. They are young (two freshman are expected to start in the defensive backfield) and, frankly, not very good. The Blazers have allowed more than 258 passing yards in every game this season, though the single game total has decreased each week. USB is 117th out of 119 schools nationally is pass defense (315.0 yards per game) and pass efficiency defense (175.2 rating). The Gamecock quarterbacks and their wide receivers could have some fun in this one.
2. USC Will Score A Special Teams Or Defensive Touchdown: USC is one of three SEC teams (Arkansas and Miss. State are the others) without a touchdown from their defensive or special teams units. But the Gamecocks have always struggled to generate points in those areas. Chris Culliver is fourth among conference kickoff returners with an average of 23.8 yards per return. He’s come close to taking one to the house on several occasions in the past. USC should be able to put better athletes on the field on special teams. Defensively, USC has just two interceptions in the first four games. With ball-hawking players like cornerback Captain Munnerlyn lurking, that number could increase. Is a Pick-6 on the horizon? The odds are good it might happen in this game.
3. Stephen Garcia Will Take At Least 40 Percent Of the Snaps: Steve Spurrier suggested during his Thursday night call-in show that starter Chris Smelley and Garcia will share the snaps evenly on Saturday night against lowly UAB. If Spurrier is true to his word, and I have no reason to believe he won’t be, Garcia will play early and often against the Blazers. I expect USC will take a comfortable halftime lead, allowing Garcia to play most of the second half. Of course, some fans may wonder how much action Garcia will get after he didn’t play a single down against Wofford last week. But this game should be a lot more one-sided.
4. UAB Will Have Less Than 250 Yards Of Total Offense: UAB has a talented quarterback in the dangerous Joe Webb, who can run (401 yards) and throw (56.3 completion percentage; 900 passing yards) equally well and a decent wide receiver in Frantrell Forrest (25 receptions). But even UAB head coach Neil Callaway acknowledged this week that the Gamecocks will be, by far, the best defensive team the Blazers have faced this season, and that includes Tennessee. So, while the UAB offense is averaging 414.2 yards per game, they should find the yards far more difficult to come by against USC. After Webb, the second most productive rusher has 123 yards, while the second best wide receiver behind Forrest has 10 catches. Essentially, all USC has to do is contain Webb and Forrest. If they do, the UAB offense should be paralyzed.
5. Maddox and Baker Will Combine for 30 Carries and 150 Yards: Without Mike Davis, who is sitting this one out for missing too many classes last year, Maddox and Baker will finally get their first true opportunity to impress the coaching staff and fans. They duo combined for 23 carries and 101 yards against Wofford last week, and there’s no reason why both those numbers shouldn’t increase dramatically this week. Three of UAB’s first four opponents have enjoyed a lot of success running the ball on the Blazers. Two weeks ago, Tennessee had 266 rushing yards. Heck, Tulsa, known as a wide-open throwing team, rushed for 240 yards in the season opener. While USC’s offensive line has struggled to open holes for most of this season, they should find some success against the Blazers, which are 91st in the nation in rushing defense (179.8 ypg).
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South Carolina hosts Alabama-Birmingham of Conference USA on Saturday night at Williams-Brice Stadium. The two teams last played five years ago and the Gamecocks won in a rout. Here are five predictions for the game:
1. USC Will Throw For More Than 300 Passing Yards: Lost amidst the furor over USC’s offensive struggles and the 12 turnovers is the fact that the Gamecocks have experienced some success throwing the ball this season. USC is third in the SEC in passing offense with 226.5 yards per game. Chris Smelley is currently among the top four passers in the SEC right now. UAB, meanwhile, has one of the worst secondaries in the country. They are young (two freshman are expected to start in the defensive backfield) and, frankly, not very good. The Blazers have allowed more than 258 passing yards in every game this season, though the single game total has decreased each week. USB is 117th out of 119 schools nationally is pass defense (315.0 yards per game) and pass efficiency defense (175.2 rating). The Gamecock quarterbacks and their wide receivers could have some fun in this one.
2. USC Will Score A Special Teams Or Defensive Touchdown: USC is one of three SEC teams (Arkansas and Miss. State are the others) without a touchdown from their defensive or special teams units. But the Gamecocks have always struggled to generate points in those areas. Chris Culliver is fourth among conference kickoff returners with an average of 23.8 yards per return. He’s come close to taking one to the house on several occasions in the past. USC should be able to put better athletes on the field on special teams. Defensively, USC has just two interceptions in the first four games. With ball-hawking players like cornerback Captain Munnerlyn lurking, that number could increase. Is a Pick-6 on the horizon? The odds are good it might happen in this game.
3. Stephen Garcia Will Take At Least 40 Percent Of the Snaps: Steve Spurrier suggested during his Thursday night call-in show that starter Chris Smelley and Garcia will share the snaps evenly on Saturday night against lowly UAB. If Spurrier is true to his word, and I have no reason to believe he won’t be, Garcia will play early and often against the Blazers. I expect USC will take a comfortable halftime lead, allowing Garcia to play most of the second half. Of course, some fans may wonder how much action Garcia will get after he didn’t play a single down against Wofford last week. But this game should be a lot more one-sided.
4. UAB Will Have Less Than 250 Yards Of Total Offense: UAB has a talented quarterback in the dangerous Joe Webb, who can run (401 yards) and throw (56.3 completion percentage; 900 passing yards) equally well and a decent wide receiver in Frantrell Forrest (25 receptions). But even UAB head coach Neil Callaway acknowledged this week that the Gamecocks will be, by far, the best defensive team the Blazers have faced this season, and that includes Tennessee. So, while the UAB offense is averaging 414.2 yards per game, they should find the yards far more difficult to come by against USC. After Webb, the second most productive rusher has 123 yards, while the second best wide receiver behind Forrest has 10 catches. Essentially, all USC has to do is contain Webb and Forrest. If they do, the UAB offense should be paralyzed.
5. Maddox and Baker Will Combine for 30 Carries and 150 Yards: Without Mike Davis, who is sitting this one out for missing too many classes last year, Maddox and Baker will finally get their first true opportunity to impress the coaching staff and fans. They duo combined for 23 carries and 101 yards against Wofford last week, and there’s no reason why both those numbers shouldn’t increase dramatically this week. Three of UAB’s first four opponents have enjoyed a lot of success running the ball on the Blazers. Two weeks ago, Tennessee had 266 rushing yards. Heck, Tulsa, known as a wide-open throwing team, rushed for 240 yards in the season opener. While USC’s offensive line has struggled to open holes for most of this season, they should find some success against the Blazers, which are 91st in the nation in rushing defense (179.8 ypg).
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.