Turnovers Will Tell The Tale
posted by Scott Hood, Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Brilliant stuff, I know.
But is it really that simple? It could be in this game.
Sure, special teams will play a pivotal role (it always does) and I think both teams have an offense (no rushing game, however), but this one is easy to figure out.
First, all you need to do is review the USC-Tennessee matchups from the last two seasons to become convinced that turnovers will be the difference.
Frankly, without turnovers the Gamecocks would be carrying a three-game winning streak over the Vols into Saturday night’s game. But three turnovers in the 2006 game, including a Pick-6 thrown by Syvelle Newton, allowed Tennessee to leave Williams-Brice Stadium with the win.
Last year, of course, was a complete travesty. USC outgained UT by nearly 200 yards and held the ball for 13 more minutes but somehow found a way to lose thanks to major blunders of the first degree by the Gamecock special teams and defense in the final minute or so of the game.
But, USC also lost that game because they committed four turnovers, negating any advantage they had in yardage or time if possession. They don’t call turnovers the great equalizer for nothing.
One of the most important reasons turnovers will play a critical role in Saturday’s game is I fully expect the defenses will dominate. Essentially, it will be a close, hard fought game in which field position will be critically important. Thus, the team which makes the fewest mistakes will win.
The last three games between USC and Tennessee have been decided by a total of 11 points. I’ve seen nothing to convince me the upcoming game will be decided by more than a field goal.
Of course, the raw numbers pertaining to turnovers don’t favor USC. The Gamecocks have spurned conventional logic this season by managing to win five games despite a SEC worst turnover margin of minus-9, while Tennessee is plus-5.
One of the principal reasons USC has won a majority of its games despite a significant deficit in turnover margin is the Gamecock defense has continuously bailed out the offense with one great defensive after another.
Opponents have scored just 27 points off the 23 turnovers committed by the Gamecocks. Tennessee has committed less than half the number of turnovers (10) USC has, but opponents have scored 22 points off the Vols’ miscues.
Think about that. USC has committed 13 more turnovers than Tennessee thus far in 2008, but the difference in points scored off those turnovers by the opponents is less than a touchdown.
Remarkable. Now you know why Ellis Johnson was recently awarded with a one-year contract extension.
But the stellar performance of the USC defense under stress doesn’t mitigate the fact that the USC offense must stop turning the ball over at an alarming rate.
Don’t expect Tennessee to do the Gamecocks any favors when it comes to turnovers. The Vols will try Saturday night to go turnover-free for a fourth consecutive game.
New UT starting quarterback Nick Stephens hasn’t thrown an interception since taking over from Jonathan Crompton four games ago. Overall, he’s thrown 97 passes this season without an interception. That’s pretty good for a guy who had never started game for one of the most pressure-packed programs in the nation until a month ago.
In terms of total defense, two of the top four defenses in the SEC will be on display Saturday night. USC, as we know, is No. 1 in the league in total defense and passing defense.
But Tennessee’s defense is pretty solid, as well. The Vols are allowing only 23.3 total yards more than USC has yielded through the first eight games.
In fact, the Tennessee defense is ranked in the Top 30 nationally in five different categories. They’ve surrendered only one run in excess of 20 yards.
When you have two offenses that have shown they can’t run the football, and both teams possess excellent defenses, the game is typically decided by turnovers and possibly special teams.
I predict the theory will hold true in this game – the team with the fewest turnovers will win.
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After digesting the voluminous amount of information available to the media, I have reached the inescapable conclusion that whichever team wins the turnover battle in Saturday night’s SEC East battle between Tennessee and South Carolina will walk off the field with a hard-fought victory.
Brilliant stuff, I know.
But is it really that simple? It could be in this game.
Sure, special teams will play a pivotal role (it always does) and I think both teams have an offense (no rushing game, however), but this one is easy to figure out.
First, all you need to do is review the USC-Tennessee matchups from the last two seasons to become convinced that turnovers will be the difference.
Frankly, without turnovers the Gamecocks would be carrying a three-game winning streak over the Vols into Saturday night’s game. But three turnovers in the 2006 game, including a Pick-6 thrown by Syvelle Newton, allowed Tennessee to leave Williams-Brice Stadium with the win.
Last year, of course, was a complete travesty. USC outgained UT by nearly 200 yards and held the ball for 13 more minutes but somehow found a way to lose thanks to major blunders of the first degree by the Gamecock special teams and defense in the final minute or so of the game.
But, USC also lost that game because they committed four turnovers, negating any advantage they had in yardage or time if possession. They don’t call turnovers the great equalizer for nothing.
One of the most important reasons turnovers will play a critical role in Saturday’s game is I fully expect the defenses will dominate. Essentially, it will be a close, hard fought game in which field position will be critically important. Thus, the team which makes the fewest mistakes will win.
The last three games between USC and Tennessee have been decided by a total of 11 points. I’ve seen nothing to convince me the upcoming game will be decided by more than a field goal.
Of course, the raw numbers pertaining to turnovers don’t favor USC. The Gamecocks have spurned conventional logic this season by managing to win five games despite a SEC worst turnover margin of minus-9, while Tennessee is plus-5.
One of the principal reasons USC has won a majority of its games despite a significant deficit in turnover margin is the Gamecock defense has continuously bailed out the offense with one great defensive after another.
Opponents have scored just 27 points off the 23 turnovers committed by the Gamecocks. Tennessee has committed less than half the number of turnovers (10) USC has, but opponents have scored 22 points off the Vols’ miscues.
Think about that. USC has committed 13 more turnovers than Tennessee thus far in 2008, but the difference in points scored off those turnovers by the opponents is less than a touchdown.
Remarkable. Now you know why Ellis Johnson was recently awarded with a one-year contract extension.
But the stellar performance of the USC defense under stress doesn’t mitigate the fact that the USC offense must stop turning the ball over at an alarming rate.
Don’t expect Tennessee to do the Gamecocks any favors when it comes to turnovers. The Vols will try Saturday night to go turnover-free for a fourth consecutive game.
New UT starting quarterback Nick Stephens hasn’t thrown an interception since taking over from Jonathan Crompton four games ago. Overall, he’s thrown 97 passes this season without an interception. That’s pretty good for a guy who had never started game for one of the most pressure-packed programs in the nation until a month ago.
In terms of total defense, two of the top four defenses in the SEC will be on display Saturday night. USC, as we know, is No. 1 in the league in total defense and passing defense.
But Tennessee’s defense is pretty solid, as well. The Vols are allowing only 23.3 total yards more than USC has yielded through the first eight games.
In fact, the Tennessee defense is ranked in the Top 30 nationally in five different categories. They’ve surrendered only one run in excess of 20 yards.
When you have two offenses that have shown they can’t run the football, and both teams possess excellent defenses, the game is typically decided by turnovers and possibly special teams.
I predict the theory will hold true in this game – the team with the fewest turnovers will win.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.