Five Predictions For The USC-LSU Game
posted by Scott Hood, Saturday, October 18, 2008
1. Stephen Garcia Will Account for 225 yards: Garcia ripped apart a decent Kentucky defense for 169 yards passing and 22 yards rushing in a little over one quarter in last week’s 24-17 victory at Lexington. Statistically, the LSU defense is not as good as Kentucky’s, but it has better athletes, especially in the front seven. So, LSU might do a better job preventing Garcia from scrambling for big yardage (he had a 25-yard run at UK). However, LSU is largely inexperienced in the secondary, the place where they’re most vulnerable. I’ll guess Garcia will throw for around 200 yards and run for about 25 more. That would be a good night’s work against an underachieving defense.
2. LSU Will Rush For Less Then 100 Yards: LSU running back Charles Scott had his streak of consecutive 100-yard rushing games snapped at four in the debacle last weekend at Florida. Scott was held to 35 yards on 12 carries. It’s no secret the SEC-leading USC defense will focus on stopping the run first and dare LSU’s young quarterback tandem of Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch to beat them through the air. USC is allowing 108.9 yards rushing per game, about 100 yards fewer than last season. Keeping the Tigers under 100 yards rushing is imperative for victory, since LSU is 35-2 under Miles when they reach the century mark on the ground.
3. USC Will Commit Less Than Two Turnovers: There is no question LSU lacks the playmakers on defense that it had last season during its national championship season. The numbers from the conference rankings tell the story. But one number sticks out above all others – LSU has forced a SEC-low four turnovers. To put that in perspective, eight of the 12 conference teams, including USC with 13, have forced 10+ turnovers. Last season, LSU had 36 turnovers in 14 games and a plus-20 turnover margin. This year, it’s minus-4. Right now, the LSU defense is not making game-turning plays. That’s good news for a USC offense that’s committed 20 turnovers, most in the SEC and an average of nearly three per game. But things turned around in the second half of the Kentucky game when USC had no miscues as Stephen Garcia showed he could take care of the football.
4. The LSU Defense Will Have Less Than Two Sacks: Besides forcing less than one turnover per game, the LSU front seven has experienced all sorts of problems getting to the quarterback this seven with nine sacks, 1.5 per game. DE Rahim Alem has one-third of that total (3). For some teams, that might be good enough, but when your front four is loaded with NFL prospects, it’s painful. Again, last season LSU had 37 sacks (2.7 per game), so the production in that department has fallen off the cliff. USC has allowed a conference-high 24 sacks. But, with the timid LSU pass rush in town, this could be the week the O-Line gets healthy.
5. USC Will Run At Least One Trick Play On Special Teams: They may not admit it, but the Gamecocks remember the smirk on Les Miles’ face when the Tigers ran the fake field goal for a key touchdown in last year’s game. So, don’t be surprised if the Gamecocks seek some retribution by running their won trick play. It might come in the punting game or an onsides kick, but it will come. USC hasn’t run many fakes this season – that’s not Ray Rychleski’s M.O. – so look for something special this week.
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South Carolina faces LSU in a nationally televised showdown Saturday night at Williams-Brice Stadium. Here are five predictions for the game:
1. Stephen Garcia Will Account for 225 yards: Garcia ripped apart a decent Kentucky defense for 169 yards passing and 22 yards rushing in a little over one quarter in last week’s 24-17 victory at Lexington. Statistically, the LSU defense is not as good as Kentucky’s, but it has better athletes, especially in the front seven. So, LSU might do a better job preventing Garcia from scrambling for big yardage (he had a 25-yard run at UK). However, LSU is largely inexperienced in the secondary, the place where they’re most vulnerable. I’ll guess Garcia will throw for around 200 yards and run for about 25 more. That would be a good night’s work against an underachieving defense.
2. LSU Will Rush For Less Then 100 Yards: LSU running back Charles Scott had his streak of consecutive 100-yard rushing games snapped at four in the debacle last weekend at Florida. Scott was held to 35 yards on 12 carries. It’s no secret the SEC-leading USC defense will focus on stopping the run first and dare LSU’s young quarterback tandem of Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch to beat them through the air. USC is allowing 108.9 yards rushing per game, about 100 yards fewer than last season. Keeping the Tigers under 100 yards rushing is imperative for victory, since LSU is 35-2 under Miles when they reach the century mark on the ground.
3. USC Will Commit Less Than Two Turnovers: There is no question LSU lacks the playmakers on defense that it had last season during its national championship season. The numbers from the conference rankings tell the story. But one number sticks out above all others – LSU has forced a SEC-low four turnovers. To put that in perspective, eight of the 12 conference teams, including USC with 13, have forced 10+ turnovers. Last season, LSU had 36 turnovers in 14 games and a plus-20 turnover margin. This year, it’s minus-4. Right now, the LSU defense is not making game-turning plays. That’s good news for a USC offense that’s committed 20 turnovers, most in the SEC and an average of nearly three per game. But things turned around in the second half of the Kentucky game when USC had no miscues as Stephen Garcia showed he could take care of the football.
4. The LSU Defense Will Have Less Than Two Sacks: Besides forcing less than one turnover per game, the LSU front seven has experienced all sorts of problems getting to the quarterback this seven with nine sacks, 1.5 per game. DE Rahim Alem has one-third of that total (3). For some teams, that might be good enough, but when your front four is loaded with NFL prospects, it’s painful. Again, last season LSU had 37 sacks (2.7 per game), so the production in that department has fallen off the cliff. USC has allowed a conference-high 24 sacks. But, with the timid LSU pass rush in town, this could be the week the O-Line gets healthy.
5. USC Will Run At Least One Trick Play On Special Teams: They may not admit it, but the Gamecocks remember the smirk on Les Miles’ face when the Tigers ran the fake field goal for a key touchdown in last year’s game. So, don’t be surprised if the Gamecocks seek some retribution by running their won trick play. It might come in the punting game or an onsides kick, but it will come. USC hasn’t run many fakes this season – that’s not Ray Rychleski’s M.O. – so look for something special this week.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.