BLOG: 5 Predictions For The USC-Clemson Game
posted by Scott Hood, Friday, November 28, 2008
1. USC WILL HOLD DAVIS AND SPILLER UNDER 125 YARDS RUSHING COMBINED: Last week, Virginia held Clemson’s running back duo of James Davis and C.J. Spiller to a combined 83 yards rushing. A week earlier, they had a combined 114 yards against Duke. Together, they’ve combined for 1,1158 yards on 228 carries, an average of 5.1 yards per rush. The USC defense has been much better against the run this season than in 2007. While seventh in the SEC doesn’t sound too impressive, the average yield of 123.6 ypg is good for 35th out of 119 schools in the NCAA. Obviously, the returns of DT Nathan Pepper and LB Jasper Brinkley from serious injuries have made a huge difference to USC’s ability to contain the run this season.
2. THE TEAM THAT WINS THE TURNOVER BATTLE WILL WIN THE GAME: I know we say this every week, but here’s your friendly reminder heading into the biggest game of the season- turnover margin is the most important statistic in football. In USC’s last four games, the team that has committed the fewest turnovers has won the game. The last time USC managed to pull out a win despite turning the ball over more than the opposition was Kentucky on Oct. 11. It took huge special teams plays by Jordin Lindsey and Captain Munnerlyn to overcome the deficiency. The story is the same for Clemson. The Tigers are 4-0 this year when they win the turnover margin and 1-4 when they lose the battle of turnovers. They won the turnover battle in recent victories over Duke and Virginia with six forced turnovers while committing just one. Over the last 10 years, Clemson is 46-11 when it commits fewer turnovers, 15-27 when it has more. With the talent level between the schools relatively even, a turnover here or there could spell the difference.
3. CHRIS SMELLEY WILL COMPLETE AT LEAST 55 PERCENT OF HIS PASSES: While the horrible interception he threw for a Florida touchdown undoubtedly sticks in the minds of most Gamecock fans, Chris Smelley has had a respectable season with a 58.5 percent completion percentage and 11 touchdown passes. I didn’t say he’s had a great season because even Smelley would tell you he hasn’t. But he hasn’t played as poorly as some Gamecock fans believe. His career completion percentage of 57.9 percent ranks fourth in USC history. He will be challenged on Saturday by an outstanding Clemson secondary, but I feel he’s up to the task. Opponents are completing 57.4 percent (198 of 345) of their passes for an average of 163.2 yards per game against Clemson this season. USC is averaging 219.1 yards per game.
4. USC WILL COLLECT AT LEAST THREE SACKS: In the first eight games of the season, USC couldn’t generate much of a pass rush, collecting just 12 sacks for an average of 1.5 per game. But the Gamecocks have done a better job in the last three games with six sacks against both Tennessee and Arkansas, and two sacks in the Florida loss. That’s 14 sacks in the last three games, an average of 4.7 per game, and 26 for the season. They had just 21 sacks in 12 games last season. The Clemson offensive line has allowed 24 sacks this season, an average of 2.2 per game. With SEC sack leader Eric Norwood coming off the edge from his outside linebacker spot, he could have success taking down Clemson QB Cullen Harper.
5. KENNY MCKINLEY WILL REACH 200 CAREER RECEPTIONS: Not only is McKinley the school’s all-time leader in receptions (194) and receiving yards (2,639), he’s currently seventh on the conference’s all-time receptions list. He needs six more catches to become just the fifth receiver in SEC history with 200 or more catches. In order to do that, he’ll need six catches against the Tigers. He has 13 receptions in the last two games, six against Florida and seven at home in the win over Arkansas. In all, he has 32 receptions in six games (5.3 per game) since returning to active duty in early October against Ole Miss after sitting out three full games with a hamstring injury. If he exceeds his average by less than one reception per game, he’ll have 200 catches heading into the bowl game.
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South Carolina faces arch-rival Clemson Saturday at noon in the Upstate in a nationally televised game on ESPN2. Here are five predictions for the latest installment of the annual Palmetto Bowl:
1. USC WILL HOLD DAVIS AND SPILLER UNDER 125 YARDS RUSHING COMBINED: Last week, Virginia held Clemson’s running back duo of James Davis and C.J. Spiller to a combined 83 yards rushing. A week earlier, they had a combined 114 yards against Duke. Together, they’ve combined for 1,1158 yards on 228 carries, an average of 5.1 yards per rush. The USC defense has been much better against the run this season than in 2007. While seventh in the SEC doesn’t sound too impressive, the average yield of 123.6 ypg is good for 35th out of 119 schools in the NCAA. Obviously, the returns of DT Nathan Pepper and LB Jasper Brinkley from serious injuries have made a huge difference to USC’s ability to contain the run this season.
2. THE TEAM THAT WINS THE TURNOVER BATTLE WILL WIN THE GAME: I know we say this every week, but here’s your friendly reminder heading into the biggest game of the season- turnover margin is the most important statistic in football. In USC’s last four games, the team that has committed the fewest turnovers has won the game. The last time USC managed to pull out a win despite turning the ball over more than the opposition was Kentucky on Oct. 11. It took huge special teams plays by Jordin Lindsey and Captain Munnerlyn to overcome the deficiency. The story is the same for Clemson. The Tigers are 4-0 this year when they win the turnover margin and 1-4 when they lose the battle of turnovers. They won the turnover battle in recent victories over Duke and Virginia with six forced turnovers while committing just one. Over the last 10 years, Clemson is 46-11 when it commits fewer turnovers, 15-27 when it has more. With the talent level between the schools relatively even, a turnover here or there could spell the difference.
3. CHRIS SMELLEY WILL COMPLETE AT LEAST 55 PERCENT OF HIS PASSES: While the horrible interception he threw for a Florida touchdown undoubtedly sticks in the minds of most Gamecock fans, Chris Smelley has had a respectable season with a 58.5 percent completion percentage and 11 touchdown passes. I didn’t say he’s had a great season because even Smelley would tell you he hasn’t. But he hasn’t played as poorly as some Gamecock fans believe. His career completion percentage of 57.9 percent ranks fourth in USC history. He will be challenged on Saturday by an outstanding Clemson secondary, but I feel he’s up to the task. Opponents are completing 57.4 percent (198 of 345) of their passes for an average of 163.2 yards per game against Clemson this season. USC is averaging 219.1 yards per game.
4. USC WILL COLLECT AT LEAST THREE SACKS: In the first eight games of the season, USC couldn’t generate much of a pass rush, collecting just 12 sacks for an average of 1.5 per game. But the Gamecocks have done a better job in the last three games with six sacks against both Tennessee and Arkansas, and two sacks in the Florida loss. That’s 14 sacks in the last three games, an average of 4.7 per game, and 26 for the season. They had just 21 sacks in 12 games last season. The Clemson offensive line has allowed 24 sacks this season, an average of 2.2 per game. With SEC sack leader Eric Norwood coming off the edge from his outside linebacker spot, he could have success taking down Clemson QB Cullen Harper.
5. KENNY MCKINLEY WILL REACH 200 CAREER RECEPTIONS: Not only is McKinley the school’s all-time leader in receptions (194) and receiving yards (2,639), he’s currently seventh on the conference’s all-time receptions list. He needs six more catches to become just the fifth receiver in SEC history with 200 or more catches. In order to do that, he’ll need six catches against the Tigers. He has 13 receptions in the last two games, six against Florida and seven at home in the win over Arkansas. In all, he has 32 receptions in six games (5.3 per game) since returning to active duty in early October against Ole Miss after sitting out three full games with a hamstring injury. If he exceeds his average by less than one reception per game, he’ll have 200 catches heading into the bowl game.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.