Five Predictions For The USC-Arkansas Game
posted by Scott Hood, Friday, November 07, 2008
1. Chris Smelley Will Be The Starting Quarterback: Why? Because everything Steve Spurrier has said over the past couple of days leads one to believe that he thinks Smelley is the better choice – in the short term - for quarterback. Spurrier also took a shot at Garcia’s work ethic with this statement during his call-in show on Thursday night: “Garcia isn’t nearly as mentally sharp as a quarterback should be. He doesn't invest the extra time in learning everything that is going on.” Smelley’s completion percentage (60.2 percent) is a couple of points higher than Garcia’s (57.5 pct.). But Smelley edges out Garcia in two key areas: his knowledge of the offense and the willingness to run the play as called. Spurrier hasn’t tried to hide his disdain for Garcia running with the ball too quickly rather than waiting for his receivers to break open downfield.
2. USC Will Rush For 150 Yards: I know USC is last in the SEC in rushing offense with an average of 100.3 yards per game. But the Gamecocks ground game showed a little bit of life against Tennessee last week. Well, Arkansas is last in the SEC in rushing defense (170.0 ypg). So, we have an eagerly anticipated collision between the conference’s worst running game against the worst running defense. It should remind us of one of those 1950’s Japanese Godzilla movies where he rids the world of yet another gigantic pest. Yes, buildings and telephone lines will be destroyed, and lot of fires will break out. In short, while USC’s ground game has been anemic for most of the season, Arkansas might be exactly the tonic the Gamecocks need.
3. USC Will Average 30 Yards Per Kickoff Return: Captain Munnerlyn returned a kickoff for 84 yards against Kentucky in a key spot. Chris Culliver had a 67-yard return in last week’s win over Tennessee. Notice a trend? USC is tied for first with Auburn in the SEC for the highest kickoff return average in the conference at 25.1 yards. Arkansas has the worst kickoff coverage unit in the SEC with a net kickoff average of 37.6 yards. USC will enjoy a 10.7 yard advantage in that category. Over the course of the game, that might provide an enormous advantage in field position to USC. Don’t be surprised if either Culliver or Munnerlyn takes one to the house for USC’s first kickoff return for a TD since 2002.
4. Arkansas Will Have Less Than 300 Yards Of Total Offense: The Razorbacks are averaging 369.8 yards per game. About 68 percent of those yards come from throwing the football (249.7 ypg). Arkansas has four receivers with at least 21 receptions, so they’re fairly diversified in their attack. But, as we all know, USC has one of the best secondaries in the nation, let alone the SEC. I don’t think Arkansas will reach 200 passing yards or 100 rushing yards. Add it up and that’s less than 300 yards. But that would hardly be an unusual occurrence. USC has held their first nine opponents save one (Vanderbilt) below their season averages in both points and total yards. I don’t expect anything too different Saturday.
5. Kenny McKinley Will Establish A New Career Receiving Yardage Record: McKinley shattered USC’s all-time career receptions record several weeks ago at Kentucky when he caught his 170th career pass at Kentucky to surpass Sterling Sharpe on the list. Of course, he fumbled on the play, but he had the record. Now, McKinley is within 25 yards of the career receiving yardage record held by Sharpe (2,497 yards). It’s a fairly safe wager McKinley will set the record Saturday against Arkansas. The senior from Mableton, Ga. has averaged 68.3 receiving yards per game since his return from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for nearly four full games. He’s caught 19 passes for 273 yards and two touchdowns during that stretch.
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South Carolina faces Arkansas in a key SEC game Saturday afternoon at Williams-Brice Stadium. Here are five predictions for the game:
1. Chris Smelley Will Be The Starting Quarterback: Why? Because everything Steve Spurrier has said over the past couple of days leads one to believe that he thinks Smelley is the better choice – in the short term - for quarterback. Spurrier also took a shot at Garcia’s work ethic with this statement during his call-in show on Thursday night: “Garcia isn’t nearly as mentally sharp as a quarterback should be. He doesn't invest the extra time in learning everything that is going on.” Smelley’s completion percentage (60.2 percent) is a couple of points higher than Garcia’s (57.5 pct.). But Smelley edges out Garcia in two key areas: his knowledge of the offense and the willingness to run the play as called. Spurrier hasn’t tried to hide his disdain for Garcia running with the ball too quickly rather than waiting for his receivers to break open downfield.
2. USC Will Rush For 150 Yards: I know USC is last in the SEC in rushing offense with an average of 100.3 yards per game. But the Gamecocks ground game showed a little bit of life against Tennessee last week. Well, Arkansas is last in the SEC in rushing defense (170.0 ypg). So, we have an eagerly anticipated collision between the conference’s worst running game against the worst running defense. It should remind us of one of those 1950’s Japanese Godzilla movies where he rids the world of yet another gigantic pest. Yes, buildings and telephone lines will be destroyed, and lot of fires will break out. In short, while USC’s ground game has been anemic for most of the season, Arkansas might be exactly the tonic the Gamecocks need.
3. USC Will Average 30 Yards Per Kickoff Return: Captain Munnerlyn returned a kickoff for 84 yards against Kentucky in a key spot. Chris Culliver had a 67-yard return in last week’s win over Tennessee. Notice a trend? USC is tied for first with Auburn in the SEC for the highest kickoff return average in the conference at 25.1 yards. Arkansas has the worst kickoff coverage unit in the SEC with a net kickoff average of 37.6 yards. USC will enjoy a 10.7 yard advantage in that category. Over the course of the game, that might provide an enormous advantage in field position to USC. Don’t be surprised if either Culliver or Munnerlyn takes one to the house for USC’s first kickoff return for a TD since 2002.
4. Arkansas Will Have Less Than 300 Yards Of Total Offense: The Razorbacks are averaging 369.8 yards per game. About 68 percent of those yards come from throwing the football (249.7 ypg). Arkansas has four receivers with at least 21 receptions, so they’re fairly diversified in their attack. But, as we all know, USC has one of the best secondaries in the nation, let alone the SEC. I don’t think Arkansas will reach 200 passing yards or 100 rushing yards. Add it up and that’s less than 300 yards. But that would hardly be an unusual occurrence. USC has held their first nine opponents save one (Vanderbilt) below their season averages in both points and total yards. I don’t expect anything too different Saturday.
5. Kenny McKinley Will Establish A New Career Receiving Yardage Record: McKinley shattered USC’s all-time career receptions record several weeks ago at Kentucky when he caught his 170th career pass at Kentucky to surpass Sterling Sharpe on the list. Of course, he fumbled on the play, but he had the record. Now, McKinley is within 25 yards of the career receiving yardage record held by Sharpe (2,497 yards). It’s a fairly safe wager McKinley will set the record Saturday against Arkansas. The senior from Mableton, Ga. has averaged 68.3 receiving yards per game since his return from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for nearly four full games. He’s caught 19 passes for 273 yards and two touchdowns during that stretch.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.