Five Things USC Must Do To Beat Florida
posted by Scott Hood, Thursday, November 13, 2008
1. KEEP IT CLOSE EARLY: Florida has outscored its opponents, 80-0, in the first quarter during its current five-game winning streak, and 104-7 on the year. LSU fell behind, 17-0, after the first quarter, while Kentucky had two punts blocked en route to falling behind, 28-0, after the first 15 minutes. Last week, Vanderbilt was digging out of a 21-0 hole after 13-1/2 minutes. Florida has been the best first-half team in the nation this year. The Gators have allowed just two first-half touchdowns all season and is outscoring opponents, 199-23, in the opening 30 minutes. Thus, South Carolina must find a way to stay close through the first half and avoid falling too far behind. It’s no big deal if USC is losing at halftime because the Gamecocks are 2-0 this season when they have fewer points at intermission. They just have to stay within striking distance, something other teams playing Florida have not been able to do.
2. MAKE BIG PLAYS ON OFFENSE: The biggest play in Ole Miss’ stunning 31-30 victory over Florida in late September was an 86-yard TD pass in the fourth quarter that gave the Rebels the lead for good. When you compare the USC offense and the Florida defense, the chances of the Gamecocks putting together multiple long, time-consuming drives is negligible. So, a few long passes should help USC’s cause. And not just to Kenny McKinley, either. Remember the long pass to Andy Boyd two years ago? That’s what I’m talking about. Conversely, they must prevent the Florida offense from making big plays. When the Gators have a play of 20-or-more yards on a drive, UF has scored 34 of 40 times (85 percent) and scored touchdowns 31 of 40 times (78 percent). The magic number for the USC offense is 21 points. Florida is 30-2 under Urban Meyer when it holds the opponent to 21 points or less. USC is 7-0 this season and 23-7 overall under Spurrier when it totals 20 points or more.
3. STOP THE GATORS ON THIRD DOWN: During its five-game winning streak, Florida has converted exactly 50 percent (24 of 48) of its third-down opportunities, a very healthy percentage. Yet, in the Ole Miss game the Gators were just 1-for-11 on third downs, by far their worst percentage of the season. In fact, that’s the only contest this season Florida has fallen below 44 percent on third downs. Not surprisingly, the Gators rushed for just 124 yards against the Rebels. The USC defense has shown remarkable improvement this season in a lot of areas, and one of them is third downs. Opponents are converting 31.9 percent of third downs in 2008, 4.2 percent below last season. USC is fourth in the SEC in third-down defense, but with Tebow and those receivers, the Gamecocks will be tested. The less Tebow and the Florida offense are on the field, the better.
4. WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE: When you look at USC’s three losses, one common theme is ill-timed turnovers. Florida (SEC leading, by far, plus-13) holds a huge advantage over USC (minus-5) in turnover margin, so the Gamecocks must find a way to neutralize that advantage. If USC commits more than one turnover, their chances for victory diminish considerably. In fact, I would contend USC’s chances to pull off the upset fall 10 to 20 percent with every turnover they commit. One thing you can’t count on is the Gators turning it over. They’ve committed just eight turnovers all year, less than one per game, and have no turnovers in six of their last 11 games. Say what you will about Urban Meyer, but that’s good coaching.
5. KEEP THEIR POISE: This might be the most important aspect of Saturday’s game. The crowd will be extremely loud. The Swamp is one of the most intimidating environments in all of college football. Just ask LSU and Kentucky. Florida will try like heck to deliver an early knock-out blow to the Gamecocks as they’ve done to numerous opponents this season. As Steve Spurrier noted this week, USC did a fairly decent job handling the pressure and not getting rattled two years ago, save for a couple of bad penalties and the blocked kicks, but they had an opportunity to win at the end. That’s what USC must hope for this year. If you’re looking for a clue on USC’s mental state, watch special teams carefully. Florida loves to come after the opposing kicker, blocking five punts and seven kicks overall this year. If USC can keep that from happening (sustaining Ray Rychleski’s eight-year streak of not having a punt blocked), I’m confident the rest of the team will fall comfortably in line.
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South Carolina will unquestionably have their hands full and more when they travel to the Swamp Saturday afternoon to face No. 4 Florida. The Gamecocks hope to deny the Gators a chance at the BCS national championship. But they must avoid the fate of teams like Georgia and LSU, which suffered blowout losses at the hands of the Gators. Here are five things USC must do if they want to shock the college football world:
1. KEEP IT CLOSE EARLY: Florida has outscored its opponents, 80-0, in the first quarter during its current five-game winning streak, and 104-7 on the year. LSU fell behind, 17-0, after the first quarter, while Kentucky had two punts blocked en route to falling behind, 28-0, after the first 15 minutes. Last week, Vanderbilt was digging out of a 21-0 hole after 13-1/2 minutes. Florida has been the best first-half team in the nation this year. The Gators have allowed just two first-half touchdowns all season and is outscoring opponents, 199-23, in the opening 30 minutes. Thus, South Carolina must find a way to stay close through the first half and avoid falling too far behind. It’s no big deal if USC is losing at halftime because the Gamecocks are 2-0 this season when they have fewer points at intermission. They just have to stay within striking distance, something other teams playing Florida have not been able to do.
2. MAKE BIG PLAYS ON OFFENSE: The biggest play in Ole Miss’ stunning 31-30 victory over Florida in late September was an 86-yard TD pass in the fourth quarter that gave the Rebels the lead for good. When you compare the USC offense and the Florida defense, the chances of the Gamecocks putting together multiple long, time-consuming drives is negligible. So, a few long passes should help USC’s cause. And not just to Kenny McKinley, either. Remember the long pass to Andy Boyd two years ago? That’s what I’m talking about. Conversely, they must prevent the Florida offense from making big plays. When the Gators have a play of 20-or-more yards on a drive, UF has scored 34 of 40 times (85 percent) and scored touchdowns 31 of 40 times (78 percent). The magic number for the USC offense is 21 points. Florida is 30-2 under Urban Meyer when it holds the opponent to 21 points or less. USC is 7-0 this season and 23-7 overall under Spurrier when it totals 20 points or more.
3. STOP THE GATORS ON THIRD DOWN: During its five-game winning streak, Florida has converted exactly 50 percent (24 of 48) of its third-down opportunities, a very healthy percentage. Yet, in the Ole Miss game the Gators were just 1-for-11 on third downs, by far their worst percentage of the season. In fact, that’s the only contest this season Florida has fallen below 44 percent on third downs. Not surprisingly, the Gators rushed for just 124 yards against the Rebels. The USC defense has shown remarkable improvement this season in a lot of areas, and one of them is third downs. Opponents are converting 31.9 percent of third downs in 2008, 4.2 percent below last season. USC is fourth in the SEC in third-down defense, but with Tebow and those receivers, the Gamecocks will be tested. The less Tebow and the Florida offense are on the field, the better.
4. WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE: When you look at USC’s three losses, one common theme is ill-timed turnovers. Florida (SEC leading, by far, plus-13) holds a huge advantage over USC (minus-5) in turnover margin, so the Gamecocks must find a way to neutralize that advantage. If USC commits more than one turnover, their chances for victory diminish considerably. In fact, I would contend USC’s chances to pull off the upset fall 10 to 20 percent with every turnover they commit. One thing you can’t count on is the Gators turning it over. They’ve committed just eight turnovers all year, less than one per game, and have no turnovers in six of their last 11 games. Say what you will about Urban Meyer, but that’s good coaching.
5. KEEP THEIR POISE: This might be the most important aspect of Saturday’s game. The crowd will be extremely loud. The Swamp is one of the most intimidating environments in all of college football. Just ask LSU and Kentucky. Florida will try like heck to deliver an early knock-out blow to the Gamecocks as they’ve done to numerous opponents this season. As Steve Spurrier noted this week, USC did a fairly decent job handling the pressure and not getting rattled two years ago, save for a couple of bad penalties and the blocked kicks, but they had an opportunity to win at the end. That’s what USC must hope for this year. If you’re looking for a clue on USC’s mental state, watch special teams carefully. Florida loves to come after the opposing kicker, blocking five punts and seven kicks overall this year. If USC can keep that from happening (sustaining Ray Rychleski’s eight-year streak of not having a punt blocked), I’m confident the rest of the team will fall comfortably in line.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.