SEC Bowl Predictions Sure To Come True
posted by Scott Hood, Thursday, November 06, 2008
Rest assured, the Gamecocks will be participating in a bowl game this year. The SEC has nine bowl tie-ins, one more than last season, including the Bowl Championship Series. However, I fully expect the conference to get two teams into the BCS, so that means up to 10 SEC teams could go bowling. But the way the schedule sets out over the final four weeks, 10 teams are not going to reach the six wins you need to qualify for a bowl.
When examining bowl scenarios, keep a couple of fundamental realities in mind: conference records and head-to-head matchups are meaningless and bowls generally select teams they believe will bring the most fans, purchase the most tickets and produce the highest TV ratings possible.
In other words, there’s no SEC-affiliated bowl game that wants Vanderbilt. Why? A small fan base will make it difficult to sell tickets and TV ratings will be lousy considering the school’s lack of tradition and national presence.
Sure, the Commodores qualifying (if they get there) for their first bowl in 26 years should make a good story for a day or two, but after that? ZZZZZZzzzzzz.
In addition to the BCS, the SEC has tie-ins with eight bowl games: Capital One (Orlando), Outback (Tampa), Cotton (Dallas), Chick-fil-A (Atlanta), Music City (Nashville), Liberty (Memphis), Independence (Shreveport) and Papajohn’s.com (Birmingham).
But you knew that already. Here’s something else you know: if the SEC champion does not reach the BCS National Championship game, they automatically fall to the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.
Entering this weekend’s action, Florida and Alabama are close to clinching their respective division titles. The Gators must beat Vanderbilt in Nashville (very likely) and Alabama must go to Baton Rouge and defeat LSU (likely) to secure their spots in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta.
In short, count on Florida squaring off with Alabama in the title game. It would take a meltdown of major proportions to avoid that matchup. Here’s how the league lines up in terms of overall wins:
9: Alabama;
8: None;
7: Florida, Georgia;
6: USC, Kentucky, LSU;
5: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss;
4: Auburn, Arkansas;
3: Tennessee, Mississippi State.
Unless the Gamecocks are able to pull off a major upset in the Swamp on Nov. 15 (not inconceivable if the USC defense plays the game of its life), Florida should run the table and finish the regular season 11-1.
Frankly, all that stands between Alabama and a perfect regular season is this Saturday’s road clash with the defending national champions at their place. If the Crimson Tide survives the trip to Tiger Stadium, all they’ll need to do is beat Miss. State and arch-rival Auburn to finish 12-0.
Right now, the most likely scenario has 11-1 Florida facing 12-0 Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Florida should win, meaning both teams will go to BCS bowl games with identical 12-1 records. As SEC champion, Florida should play in the BCS title game for the second time in three years or the Sugar Bowl.
After being blasted by Florida last week, Georgia should run the table and finish 10-2, putting them in the Capitol One Bowl. LSU should win its final three games and finish 9-3. That should put the Tigers in the Cotton Bowl to face a highly ranked Big 12 team.
The Cotton Bowl has first preference of a SEC West team and they won’t pass up the chance to have LSU in their game, especially if the opponent is Texas.
That means the Outback Bowl is next in line, though it’s considered on the same level as the Cotton Bowl in the bowl pecking order.
If USC manages to get to eight wins, they can book a trip to Tampa. It’s that easy. But if they slip up against Arkansas or Clemson, it will get a little more complicated, though a 7-5 record might still be good enough to get the Outback depending on how teams like Kentucky and Ole Miss fare. Right now, I predict the Gamecocks will beat Arkansas and Clemson (USC is better defensively than both teams) and finish the regular season with an 8-4 mark.
That’s a pretty good season by any measure.
It also means Outback Bowl officials will be dancing in their offices at the thought of 30,000 to 40,000 excited Gamecock fans spending millions of dollars in the Tampa-St. Pete area for about a week of fun and frolic.
Kentucky is already bowl eligible, and has a chance to reach eight wins by defeating two of these three teams: Georgia, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. But it won’t happen. Kentucky will beat the 'Dores and end up 7-5.
Ole Miss should achieve bowl eligibility this weekend by beating Louisiana-Monroe. After that, they face LSU (likely loss) and arch-rival Miss. State in the Egg Bowl. The verdict? The Rebels also finish 7-5.
If they do, their most likely destination is the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, which is about 90 miles from campus.
Vanderbilt is still searching for that elusive sixth win, but it could be a while before they get it, if ever. The ‘Dores next three games are against Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee. I predict they will lose all three, meaning their bowl hopes will hinge on the regular season finale at Wake Forest. It will be all-or-nothing for the Commodores.
Tennessee, which sacked head coach Phil Fulmer on Monday but will allow him to finish out the year, must win its final three games against Wyoming, Vanderbilt and Kentucky to get bowl eligible. Will they do it? Yes. Playing inspired football, the Vols finish 6-6 and won’t have to travel far for the holidays. They’ll play an ACC team in the Music City Bowl in nearby Nashville.
In my opinion, the bottom three teams in the SEC Western Division are in serious trouble when it comes to securing that all-important sixth win. Auburn (4-5) still has to play Georgia and Alabama, while Arkansas must beat two of the following: USC, Miss. State or LSU. It won’t happen for either team.
If Auburn finishes out of the bowl picture, will that impact Tommy Tuberville's job status? You bet. And not in a good way, either.
Mississippi State? Please. With a 3-6 record, one more loss and they’re kaput. If that happens, the tenure of head coach Sylvester Croom should come to a disappointing end. The MSU offense is putrid.
At this moment, here’s how I foresee the SEC bowl picture developing with the predicted final records in parentheses:
BCS: Florida (champion)(12-1), Alabama (12-1);
Capital One: Georgia (10-2)
Outback: South Carolina (8-4)
Cotton: LSU (9-3)
Chick-fil-A: Kentucky (7-5)
Music City: Tennessee (6-6)
Liberty: Ole Miss (7-5)
Independence: Vanderbilt (6-6)
Papajohn’s.com: None (At-Large Team)
No Bowl: Auburn (5-7), Arkansas (5-7) and Miss. State (3-9).
Which Big 10 team will USC face in the Outback Bowl? Take your pick among these three schools: Michigan State, Minnesota or Northwestern.
My prediction: Minnesota. Hockey, anyone?
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Four weekends remain in the SEC regular season, so it’s time to start thinking about bowl games, especially that South Carolina has achieved bowl eligibility with last weekend’s 27-6 victory over Tennessee.
Rest assured, the Gamecocks will be participating in a bowl game this year. The SEC has nine bowl tie-ins, one more than last season, including the Bowl Championship Series. However, I fully expect the conference to get two teams into the BCS, so that means up to 10 SEC teams could go bowling. But the way the schedule sets out over the final four weeks, 10 teams are not going to reach the six wins you need to qualify for a bowl.
When examining bowl scenarios, keep a couple of fundamental realities in mind: conference records and head-to-head matchups are meaningless and bowls generally select teams they believe will bring the most fans, purchase the most tickets and produce the highest TV ratings possible.
In other words, there’s no SEC-affiliated bowl game that wants Vanderbilt. Why? A small fan base will make it difficult to sell tickets and TV ratings will be lousy considering the school’s lack of tradition and national presence.
Sure, the Commodores qualifying (if they get there) for their first bowl in 26 years should make a good story for a day or two, but after that? ZZZZZZzzzzzz.
In addition to the BCS, the SEC has tie-ins with eight bowl games: Capital One (Orlando), Outback (Tampa), Cotton (Dallas), Chick-fil-A (Atlanta), Music City (Nashville), Liberty (Memphis), Independence (Shreveport) and Papajohn’s.com (Birmingham).
But you knew that already. Here’s something else you know: if the SEC champion does not reach the BCS National Championship game, they automatically fall to the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.
Entering this weekend’s action, Florida and Alabama are close to clinching their respective division titles. The Gators must beat Vanderbilt in Nashville (very likely) and Alabama must go to Baton Rouge and defeat LSU (likely) to secure their spots in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta.
In short, count on Florida squaring off with Alabama in the title game. It would take a meltdown of major proportions to avoid that matchup. Here’s how the league lines up in terms of overall wins:
9: Alabama;
8: None;
7: Florida, Georgia;
6: USC, Kentucky, LSU;
5: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss;
4: Auburn, Arkansas;
3: Tennessee, Mississippi State.
Unless the Gamecocks are able to pull off a major upset in the Swamp on Nov. 15 (not inconceivable if the USC defense plays the game of its life), Florida should run the table and finish the regular season 11-1.
Frankly, all that stands between Alabama and a perfect regular season is this Saturday’s road clash with the defending national champions at their place. If the Crimson Tide survives the trip to Tiger Stadium, all they’ll need to do is beat Miss. State and arch-rival Auburn to finish 12-0.
Right now, the most likely scenario has 11-1 Florida facing 12-0 Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Florida should win, meaning both teams will go to BCS bowl games with identical 12-1 records. As SEC champion, Florida should play in the BCS title game for the second time in three years or the Sugar Bowl.
After being blasted by Florida last week, Georgia should run the table and finish 10-2, putting them in the Capitol One Bowl. LSU should win its final three games and finish 9-3. That should put the Tigers in the Cotton Bowl to face a highly ranked Big 12 team.
The Cotton Bowl has first preference of a SEC West team and they won’t pass up the chance to have LSU in their game, especially if the opponent is Texas.
That means the Outback Bowl is next in line, though it’s considered on the same level as the Cotton Bowl in the bowl pecking order.
If USC manages to get to eight wins, they can book a trip to Tampa. It’s that easy. But if they slip up against Arkansas or Clemson, it will get a little more complicated, though a 7-5 record might still be good enough to get the Outback depending on how teams like Kentucky and Ole Miss fare. Right now, I predict the Gamecocks will beat Arkansas and Clemson (USC is better defensively than both teams) and finish the regular season with an 8-4 mark.
That’s a pretty good season by any measure.
It also means Outback Bowl officials will be dancing in their offices at the thought of 30,000 to 40,000 excited Gamecock fans spending millions of dollars in the Tampa-St. Pete area for about a week of fun and frolic.
Kentucky is already bowl eligible, and has a chance to reach eight wins by defeating two of these three teams: Georgia, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. But it won’t happen. Kentucky will beat the 'Dores and end up 7-5.
Ole Miss should achieve bowl eligibility this weekend by beating Louisiana-Monroe. After that, they face LSU (likely loss) and arch-rival Miss. State in the Egg Bowl. The verdict? The Rebels also finish 7-5.
If they do, their most likely destination is the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, which is about 90 miles from campus.
Vanderbilt is still searching for that elusive sixth win, but it could be a while before they get it, if ever. The ‘Dores next three games are against Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee. I predict they will lose all three, meaning their bowl hopes will hinge on the regular season finale at Wake Forest. It will be all-or-nothing for the Commodores.
Tennessee, which sacked head coach Phil Fulmer on Monday but will allow him to finish out the year, must win its final three games against Wyoming, Vanderbilt and Kentucky to get bowl eligible. Will they do it? Yes. Playing inspired football, the Vols finish 6-6 and won’t have to travel far for the holidays. They’ll play an ACC team in the Music City Bowl in nearby Nashville.
In my opinion, the bottom three teams in the SEC Western Division are in serious trouble when it comes to securing that all-important sixth win. Auburn (4-5) still has to play Georgia and Alabama, while Arkansas must beat two of the following: USC, Miss. State or LSU. It won’t happen for either team.
If Auburn finishes out of the bowl picture, will that impact Tommy Tuberville's job status? You bet. And not in a good way, either.
Mississippi State? Please. With a 3-6 record, one more loss and they’re kaput. If that happens, the tenure of head coach Sylvester Croom should come to a disappointing end. The MSU offense is putrid.
At this moment, here’s how I foresee the SEC bowl picture developing with the predicted final records in parentheses:
BCS: Florida (champion)(12-1), Alabama (12-1);
Capital One: Georgia (10-2)
Outback: South Carolina (8-4)
Cotton: LSU (9-3)
Chick-fil-A: Kentucky (7-5)
Music City: Tennessee (6-6)
Liberty: Ole Miss (7-5)
Independence: Vanderbilt (6-6)
Papajohn’s.com: None (At-Large Team)
No Bowl: Auburn (5-7), Arkansas (5-7) and Miss. State (3-9).
Which Big 10 team will USC face in the Outback Bowl? Take your pick among these three schools: Michigan State, Minnesota or Northwestern.
My prediction: Minnesota. Hockey, anyone?
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.