SEC Bowl Predictions Sure To Come True - 11/11
posted by Scott Hood, Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Raise you hand if you predicted before the season that Tennessee would be the first SEC school eliminated from bowl contention.
The hapless Vols suffered their seventh loss of the season last weekend on Homecoming to equally inept Wyoming. Heck, Phil Fulmer should have been fired a second time after that embarrassment. And this guy still gets $6 million? Right now, Steve Austin, the original six million dollar man, is a better football coach than Fulmer. Hey, that guy could leap.
Many Tennessee players reacted angrily to the university administration firing Fulmer at the end of the season, but they promptly went out onto the gridiron and justified the decision with a poor performance against the Cowboys.
So, the Vols will go bowl-less for the second time in four seasons. That raises two interesting questions: will there actually be more Vanderbilt fans in the stands when the two intra-state rivals play on Nov. 22 in Nashville and how many Vols fans will have bags over their heads for Fulmer’s swan song at home on Nov. 29 against Kentucky.
Phil Fulmer Day? It will likely end up as Dump On Phil Fulmer Day. Yeah, Tennessee fans are angry. In 10 years Fulmer went from the toast of Knoxville to being tossed aside like Ed Orgeron. Ouch.
Who will join Tennessee this week on the list of SEC teams ineligible for a bowl? There’s only one team up for the award and that’s Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 3-6 and must face Nick Saban and No. 1 Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Unfortunately, the entire nation will have an opportunity to watch MSU get spanked by the Tide since ESPN is televising the game in its 7:45 p.m. ET prime time slot.
A loss by MSU and you can just about wave good-bye to head coach Sylvester Croom. It’s been another tough year for the Bulldogs.
So, by the end of the weekend, two SEC teams should be eliminated from the bowl race. Next week, two more schools could be on the chopping block – Arkansas (4-6) and probably Auburn, which is 5-5 but must face Georgia this week and Alabama on Nov. 29. War Eagle is 2-5 after a 3-0 start. Barring an upset, they’re staying home while their bitter rival possibly plays for the national championship. How times have changed in the Yellowhammer State. Where have you gone Leon Hart?
Remember, the SEC has nine bowl tie-ins, one more than last season, including the Bowl Championship Series. However, I still believe both Florida and Alabama will play in BCS bowls (the winner of the Dec. 6 SEC championship game should go to the BCS national championship game), meaning up to 10 SEC teams could go bowling.
Right now, though, there’s no way that many SEC schools will qualify, so multiple lower-tiered SEC-affiliated bowls such as the Papajohn’s.com Bowl in Birmingham and the Independence Bowl in Shreveport will have to make alternate plans. Hey, good luck with that.
Looking at the schedules, as few as seven SEC teams could be bowl eligible when the regular season officially ends Nov. 29. That means as many as three SEC-affiliated bowls could be out of luck.
Besides USC-Florida, the biggest SEC game of the weekend is Vanderbilt at Kentucky. The Commodores are still trying to attain bowl eligibility for the first time since 1982, while the Wildcats are seeking an eight-win season and a possible berth in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta. Both schools have Tennessee remaining on their schedules.
Vanderbilt has three chances to get one win. If they succeed, they’ll likely end up playing in the hometown Music City Bowl in Nashville. Why? As I explained last week, there’s no SEC-affiliated bowl that wants Vanderbilt in their game due to a small alumni base and a complete lack of tradition and national presence that shoulder dampen ticket sales and TV ratings.
Kentucky? They should end up in Atlanta or Memphis.
With the preliminaries out of the way, where does USC end up? The most likely destination is still the Outback Bowl. Eight wins and the Gamecocks can make plans for Tampa. If USC upsets Florida and beats Clemson to finish 9-3, there’s the possibility the Capital One Bowl could select the Gamecocks over Georgia, but I don’t think that will occur if Georgia has nine or 10 wins.
What happens if USC ends up with seven wins? The Outback is still a possibility, or even a probability, particularity if two SEC schools make it into the BCS. Would Outback Bowl president Jim McVay select a seven-win Gamecock team over an eight-win Kentucky team? Yes.
By the way, congratulations if you predicted before the season started that USC (7) would have more victories than defending national champion LSU (6) at the start of Week 12.
Here’s how the SEC victory ladder shapes up:
10: Alabama;
9: None;
8: Florida, Georgia;
7: USC;
6: Kentucky, LSU.
******************************************
5: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Auburn;
4: Arkansas;
3: Tennessee, Mississippi State.
Unless the Gamecocks are able to pull off a major upset in the Swamp on Nov. 15 (not inconceivable if the USC defense plays the game of its life), Florida should beat The Citadel and Florida State and finish the regular season at 11-1.
Now that Alabama successfully maneuvered its way through the minefield known as Baton Rouge, the Tide should enter the SEC title game with a 12-0 mark since the only remaining games are against lowly Miss. State and arch-rival Auburn.
At this moment, here’s how I foresee the SEC bowl picture developing with the predicted final records in parentheses:
BCS: Florida (SEC Champion)(12-1), Alabama (12-1);
Capital One: Georgia (10-2)
Outback: South Carolina (8-4)
Cotton: LSU (9-3)
Chick-fil-A: Kentucky (7-5)
Music City: Vanderbilt (6-6)
Liberty: Ole Miss (7-5)
Independence: None (At-Large Team)
Papajohn’s.com: None (At-Large Team)
No Bowl: Auburn (5-7), Arkansas (5-7), Miss. State (3-9) and Tennessee (4-8).
Which Big 10 team will USC face in the Outback Bowl? Take your pick among these three schools: Michigan State, Iowa or Northwestern. Again, which school opposes the Gamecocks in Tampa will depend largely on how many Big 10 schools make it into the BCS. If Penn State and Ohio State both go, Michigan State will likely head to the Capital One Bowl to face Georgia. If not, Sparty ends up in Tampa.
My prediction: Northwestern.
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With seven victories already, South Carolina will definitely be participating in a bowl game for the third time in the last four years. It’s the first time in school history that’s happened. So, where will the Gamecocks end up? The Outback Bowl in Tampa is a distinct possibility, but so is the Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta. Where USC ends up for the holidays will depend on how some other teams fare over the next few weeks.
Raise you hand if you predicted before the season that Tennessee would be the first SEC school eliminated from bowl contention.
The hapless Vols suffered their seventh loss of the season last weekend on Homecoming to equally inept Wyoming. Heck, Phil Fulmer should have been fired a second time after that embarrassment. And this guy still gets $6 million? Right now, Steve Austin, the original six million dollar man, is a better football coach than Fulmer. Hey, that guy could leap.
Many Tennessee players reacted angrily to the university administration firing Fulmer at the end of the season, but they promptly went out onto the gridiron and justified the decision with a poor performance against the Cowboys.
So, the Vols will go bowl-less for the second time in four seasons. That raises two interesting questions: will there actually be more Vanderbilt fans in the stands when the two intra-state rivals play on Nov. 22 in Nashville and how many Vols fans will have bags over their heads for Fulmer’s swan song at home on Nov. 29 against Kentucky.
Phil Fulmer Day? It will likely end up as Dump On Phil Fulmer Day. Yeah, Tennessee fans are angry. In 10 years Fulmer went from the toast of Knoxville to being tossed aside like Ed Orgeron. Ouch.
Who will join Tennessee this week on the list of SEC teams ineligible for a bowl? There’s only one team up for the award and that’s Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 3-6 and must face Nick Saban and No. 1 Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Unfortunately, the entire nation will have an opportunity to watch MSU get spanked by the Tide since ESPN is televising the game in its 7:45 p.m. ET prime time slot.
A loss by MSU and you can just about wave good-bye to head coach Sylvester Croom. It’s been another tough year for the Bulldogs.
So, by the end of the weekend, two SEC teams should be eliminated from the bowl race. Next week, two more schools could be on the chopping block – Arkansas (4-6) and probably Auburn, which is 5-5 but must face Georgia this week and Alabama on Nov. 29. War Eagle is 2-5 after a 3-0 start. Barring an upset, they’re staying home while their bitter rival possibly plays for the national championship. How times have changed in the Yellowhammer State. Where have you gone Leon Hart?
Remember, the SEC has nine bowl tie-ins, one more than last season, including the Bowl Championship Series. However, I still believe both Florida and Alabama will play in BCS bowls (the winner of the Dec. 6 SEC championship game should go to the BCS national championship game), meaning up to 10 SEC teams could go bowling.
Right now, though, there’s no way that many SEC schools will qualify, so multiple lower-tiered SEC-affiliated bowls such as the Papajohn’s.com Bowl in Birmingham and the Independence Bowl in Shreveport will have to make alternate plans. Hey, good luck with that.
Looking at the schedules, as few as seven SEC teams could be bowl eligible when the regular season officially ends Nov. 29. That means as many as three SEC-affiliated bowls could be out of luck.
Besides USC-Florida, the biggest SEC game of the weekend is Vanderbilt at Kentucky. The Commodores are still trying to attain bowl eligibility for the first time since 1982, while the Wildcats are seeking an eight-win season and a possible berth in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta. Both schools have Tennessee remaining on their schedules.
Vanderbilt has three chances to get one win. If they succeed, they’ll likely end up playing in the hometown Music City Bowl in Nashville. Why? As I explained last week, there’s no SEC-affiliated bowl that wants Vanderbilt in their game due to a small alumni base and a complete lack of tradition and national presence that shoulder dampen ticket sales and TV ratings.
Kentucky? They should end up in Atlanta or Memphis.
With the preliminaries out of the way, where does USC end up? The most likely destination is still the Outback Bowl. Eight wins and the Gamecocks can make plans for Tampa. If USC upsets Florida and beats Clemson to finish 9-3, there’s the possibility the Capital One Bowl could select the Gamecocks over Georgia, but I don’t think that will occur if Georgia has nine or 10 wins.
What happens if USC ends up with seven wins? The Outback is still a possibility, or even a probability, particularity if two SEC schools make it into the BCS. Would Outback Bowl president Jim McVay select a seven-win Gamecock team over an eight-win Kentucky team? Yes.
By the way, congratulations if you predicted before the season started that USC (7) would have more victories than defending national champion LSU (6) at the start of Week 12.
Here’s how the SEC victory ladder shapes up:
10: Alabama;
9: None;
8: Florida, Georgia;
7: USC;
6: Kentucky, LSU.
******************************************
5: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Auburn;
4: Arkansas;
3: Tennessee, Mississippi State.
Unless the Gamecocks are able to pull off a major upset in the Swamp on Nov. 15 (not inconceivable if the USC defense plays the game of its life), Florida should beat The Citadel and Florida State and finish the regular season at 11-1.
Now that Alabama successfully maneuvered its way through the minefield known as Baton Rouge, the Tide should enter the SEC title game with a 12-0 mark since the only remaining games are against lowly Miss. State and arch-rival Auburn.
At this moment, here’s how I foresee the SEC bowl picture developing with the predicted final records in parentheses:
BCS: Florida (SEC Champion)(12-1), Alabama (12-1);
Capital One: Georgia (10-2)
Outback: South Carolina (8-4)
Cotton: LSU (9-3)
Chick-fil-A: Kentucky (7-5)
Music City: Vanderbilt (6-6)
Liberty: Ole Miss (7-5)
Independence: None (At-Large Team)
Papajohn’s.com: None (At-Large Team)
No Bowl: Auburn (5-7), Arkansas (5-7), Miss. State (3-9) and Tennessee (4-8).
Which Big 10 team will USC face in the Outback Bowl? Take your pick among these three schools: Michigan State, Iowa or Northwestern. Again, which school opposes the Gamecocks in Tampa will depend largely on how many Big 10 schools make it into the BCS. If Penn State and Ohio State both go, Michigan State will likely head to the Capital One Bowl to face Georgia. If not, Sparty ends up in Tampa.
My prediction: Northwestern.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.