SEC Bowl Predictions Sure To Come True - 11/18
posted by Scott Hood, Tuesday, November 18, 2008
So, the Commodores will be playing football during the holiday while Tennessee (3-7) and Auburn (5-6), most likely, stay home and sulk with losing records.
Welcome to the kinder, gentler SEC.
Now that Vanderbilt has finally reached six wins after starting the season 5-0, you can expect the Bobby Johnson talk to heat up again regarding the job opening at Clemson and a few other places.
What is Vanderbilt’s reward for accomplishing something they haven’t been able to achieve for 26 years? The opportunity to remain home in Nashville and play in the Music City Bowl.
Let’s put it this way: Vanderbilt could finish with eight wins and yet they have little chance to play in the Outback or Chick-fil-A Bowls. Why? The Commodores are undesirable as a bowl team because of their small fan base and lack of tradition, which translates to fewer TV viewers.
As for South Carolina, will the drubbing at the hands of Florida affect the Gamecocks’ bowl status? Not really. USC is still one of the top choices of the Outback Bowl and barring a complete meltdown in the final game against Clemson, should be headed to Tampa.
If USC beats Clemson, and they should be slight favorites to do so, Gamecock fans can book their trips to the Outback Bowl without waiting for the official announcement on Dec. 7.
Despite losing to Florida by a whopping margin last Saturday, USC received a major break later in the day when Vanderbilt beat Kentucky, 31-24, in Lexington. The loss means the best Kentucky can finish is 7-5.
Since Kentucky definitely won’t beat out USC for the Outback Bowl berth if both teams end up 7-5, the Wildcats are chasing a spot in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. After that, their most likely destination is the Liberty Bowl in Memphis.
The Wildcats must beat the Tennessee on Nov. 29 to avoid going 0-5 against the SEC East this season, as well as the unwelcome notoriety it would receive for playing in a bowl game with a 2-6 conference record.
So, if Kentucky has been removed from the picture, who is USC’s main competition for the Outback Bowl? Ole Miss. The Rebels would finish with eight wins in Houston Nutt’s first year as head coach if they beat LSU and Mississippi State in their final two contests.
The Outback Bowl would face a difficult choice if it came down to 7-5 USC and 8-4 Ole Miss, though a SEC West team hasn’t played in Tampa in 11 years. Except for that scenario, the Gamecocks should play in the Outback for the third time this decade.
After joining Tennessee on the confirmed list of SEC bowl ineligible teams with their seventh loss of the season last weekend to Alabama, Mississippi State (3-7) has a chance to knock Arkansas (4-6) out of the bowl picture when they host the Razorbacks Saturday in Starkville.
Arkansas, meanwhile, must beat the Bulldogs and LSU (11/28) to reach six wins. Their reward would likely be a trip to Shreveport for the Independence Bowl.
The only way Auburn(5-6) makes a bowl game is upsetting No. 1 Alabama in the Iron Bowl on Nov. 29. That won't happen, especially with the Tigers' struggling offense.
Here’s how the SEC victory ladder shapes up:
11: Alabama;
10: None;
9: Florida, Georgia;
8: None;
7: USC, LSU;
6: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss.
******************************************
5: Auburn;
4: Arkansas;
3: Tennessee, Mississippi State.
At this moment, here’s how I foresee the SEC bowl picture developing with the predicted final records in parentheses:
BCS: Florida (SEC Champion)(12-1), Alabama (12-1);
Capital One: Georgia (10-2)
Outback: South Carolina (8-4)
Cotton: LSU (9-3)
Chick-fil-A: Ole Miss (7-5)
Music City: Vanderbilt (7-5)
Liberty: Kentucky (7-5)
Independence: None (At-Large Team)
Papajohn’s.com: None (At-Large Team)
No Bowl: Auburn (5-7), Arkansas (5-7), Miss. State (3-9) and Tennessee (4-8).
Right now, Michigan State, Iowa or Northwestern are the most likely opponents for USC in the Outback Bowl. MSU can capture a share of the Big 10 title by beating Penn State in Happy Valley on Saturday, but the only way they end up playing in the Rose Bowl is if Michigan upsets Ohio State. Iowa can finish 8-4 with a win at Minnesota Saturday night. Northwestern can polish off a 9-3 campaign by beating intra-state rival Illinois.
Prediction: Iowa.
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It’s been a remarkable year in America. Voters first elected the nation’s first African-American president. Two weeks later, we have another surprising development: Vanderbilt is bowl eligible.
So, the Commodores will be playing football during the holiday while Tennessee (3-7) and Auburn (5-6), most likely, stay home and sulk with losing records.
Welcome to the kinder, gentler SEC.
Now that Vanderbilt has finally reached six wins after starting the season 5-0, you can expect the Bobby Johnson talk to heat up again regarding the job opening at Clemson and a few other places.
What is Vanderbilt’s reward for accomplishing something they haven’t been able to achieve for 26 years? The opportunity to remain home in Nashville and play in the Music City Bowl.
Let’s put it this way: Vanderbilt could finish with eight wins and yet they have little chance to play in the Outback or Chick-fil-A Bowls. Why? The Commodores are undesirable as a bowl team because of their small fan base and lack of tradition, which translates to fewer TV viewers.
As for South Carolina, will the drubbing at the hands of Florida affect the Gamecocks’ bowl status? Not really. USC is still one of the top choices of the Outback Bowl and barring a complete meltdown in the final game against Clemson, should be headed to Tampa.
If USC beats Clemson, and they should be slight favorites to do so, Gamecock fans can book their trips to the Outback Bowl without waiting for the official announcement on Dec. 7.
Despite losing to Florida by a whopping margin last Saturday, USC received a major break later in the day when Vanderbilt beat Kentucky, 31-24, in Lexington. The loss means the best Kentucky can finish is 7-5.
Since Kentucky definitely won’t beat out USC for the Outback Bowl berth if both teams end up 7-5, the Wildcats are chasing a spot in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. After that, their most likely destination is the Liberty Bowl in Memphis.
The Wildcats must beat the Tennessee on Nov. 29 to avoid going 0-5 against the SEC East this season, as well as the unwelcome notoriety it would receive for playing in a bowl game with a 2-6 conference record.
So, if Kentucky has been removed from the picture, who is USC’s main competition for the Outback Bowl? Ole Miss. The Rebels would finish with eight wins in Houston Nutt’s first year as head coach if they beat LSU and Mississippi State in their final two contests.
The Outback Bowl would face a difficult choice if it came down to 7-5 USC and 8-4 Ole Miss, though a SEC West team hasn’t played in Tampa in 11 years. Except for that scenario, the Gamecocks should play in the Outback for the third time this decade.
After joining Tennessee on the confirmed list of SEC bowl ineligible teams with their seventh loss of the season last weekend to Alabama, Mississippi State (3-7) has a chance to knock Arkansas (4-6) out of the bowl picture when they host the Razorbacks Saturday in Starkville.
Arkansas, meanwhile, must beat the Bulldogs and LSU (11/28) to reach six wins. Their reward would likely be a trip to Shreveport for the Independence Bowl.
The only way Auburn(5-6) makes a bowl game is upsetting No. 1 Alabama in the Iron Bowl on Nov. 29. That won't happen, especially with the Tigers' struggling offense.
Here’s how the SEC victory ladder shapes up:
11: Alabama;
10: None;
9: Florida, Georgia;
8: None;
7: USC, LSU;
6: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss.
******************************************
5: Auburn;
4: Arkansas;
3: Tennessee, Mississippi State.
At this moment, here’s how I foresee the SEC bowl picture developing with the predicted final records in parentheses:
BCS: Florida (SEC Champion)(12-1), Alabama (12-1);
Capital One: Georgia (10-2)
Outback: South Carolina (8-4)
Cotton: LSU (9-3)
Chick-fil-A: Ole Miss (7-5)
Music City: Vanderbilt (7-5)
Liberty: Kentucky (7-5)
Independence: None (At-Large Team)
Papajohn’s.com: None (At-Large Team)
No Bowl: Auburn (5-7), Arkansas (5-7), Miss. State (3-9) and Tennessee (4-8).
Right now, Michigan State, Iowa or Northwestern are the most likely opponents for USC in the Outback Bowl. MSU can capture a share of the Big 10 title by beating Penn State in Happy Valley on Saturday, but the only way they end up playing in the Rose Bowl is if Michigan upsets Ohio State. Iowa can finish 8-4 with a win at Minnesota Saturday night. Northwestern can polish off a 9-3 campaign by beating intra-state rival Illinois.
Prediction: Iowa.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.