SEC Bowl Predictions Sure To Come True - 12/2

posted by Scott Hood, Tuesday, December 02, 2008

If South Carolina, as expected, earns a berth in the Outback Bowl, Gamecock fans would have Bobby Petrino and Phil Fulmer to thank.

Despite USC’s struggles against Florida and Clemson in the final two regular season games, it’s still a probability the Gamecocks will end up in Tampa on New Years Day. The road to the Sunshine State was paved for USC when Arkansas upset LSU, 31-30, on Friday and Tennessee defeated Kentucky, 28-10, for the 24th straight time, on Saturday night in Knoxville.

As they say, there are three certainties in life: death, taxes and Tennessee beating Kentucky.

No question, USC has benefited from the late-season collapses of LSU (5 losses in 8 games), Kentucky (3 straight losses and 4 of 5) and Vanderbilt (6 losses in 7 games). Several weeks ago, Kentucky was deeply involved in the Outback Bowl discussion, but losses to Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee halted that talk even though one of the co-founders of the Outback Steak House, the bowl game’s naming corporate partner, is a Kentucky graduate.

But, as any Gamecock fan will tell you, nothing comes easy for USC. There was a scenario first presented by media outlets in Mississippi on Tuesday in which the Capital One Bowl, the top non-BCS bowl affiliated with the SEC, would select red-hot Ole Miss (five straight wins) over Georgia, which started the season with the No. 1 ranking in the national polls.

According to these reports, the executive director of the Capital One Bowl was quoted as saying that the choice is now between Georgia and Ole Miss, and that the Rebels were “in the mix.” Question is, how much?

If the Capital One Bowl surprises most people and takes Ole Miss, Georgia would likely fall to the Outback and LSU would end up in the Cotton Bowl. Under that scenario, USC would square off against an ACC team in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

There is some sentiment the Capital One Bowl is merely trying to drum up some pre-selection publicity by throwing the Ole Miss name out there to keep people interested in the process, and to essentially tell the Ole Miss fan base what they wanted to hear. However, when push comes to shove, look for the Capital One to stick with Georgia, a sure thing.

The biggest newspaper in the Magnolia State, the Jackson Clarion Ledger, reported Tuesday that “though the Capital One Bowl is a possibility, it appears to Rebels most likely destination is still the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.”

So, while there is a chance Ole Miss could end up in the Capital One Bowl, it’s a slim one.

While it still appears USC will play in the Outback, there is some concern among the people there, including Bowl President Jim McVay, that the Gamecock Nation is in a sour enough mood after the losses to Florida and Clemson to dismiss plans to attend the bowl game.

But, there is evidence to the contrary. USC lost its final three games of the 2000 season, including the infamous “push-off” game against Clemson, to finish 7-4. Yet, more than 30,000 Gamecock fans showed up in Tampa for the first bowl game against Ohio State.

The key question is this: Will AD Eric Hyman be able to convince the Outback Bowl that 20,000-25,000 Gamecock fans would show up if USC is the choice? If so, the Gamecocks will be in Tampa. If not, they may end up in Atlanta.

Frankly, it was a master stroke of genius by Steve Spurrier to name Stephen Garcia as the starting quarterback for the bowl game. That decision only improves the odds of USC landing in Tampa for two reasons: 1) it should reignite the passions of a disenchanted USC fan base after a pair of bad losses; and 2) it will get the locals in Tampa excited since about 50 percent of the bowl tickets are purchased by natives.

Here’s how the SEC victory ladder shapes up:
12: Alabama;
11: Florida;
10: None;
9: Georgia;
8: Ole Miss;
7: USC, LSU;
6: Kentucky, Vanderbilt.

******************************************

5: Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas;
4: Mississippi State.

At this moment, here’s how I foresee the SEC bowl picture developing with the predicted final records in parentheses:

BCS: Florida (SEC Champion)(12-1), Alabama (12-1);
Capital One: Georgia (9-3)
Outback: South Carolina (7-5)
Cotton: Ole Miss (8-4)
Chick-fil-A: LSU (7-5)
Music City: Vanderbilt (6-6)
Liberty: Kentucky (6-6)
Independence: None (At-Large Team)
Papajohn’s.com: None (At-Large Team)

No Bowl: Auburn (5-7), Arkansas (5-7), Miss. State (4-8) and Tennessee (5-7).

With Ohio State now likely to reach the BCS as a result of Oregon State’s loss to rival Oregon in last week’s ‘Civil War’ game, that should push Michigan State to the Capital One Bowl and Iowa or Northwestern to the Outback. Iowa sent more than 20,000 fans to Tampa in 2004 and 2006 when they split a pair of games with Florida. Money talks. It will be the Hawkeyes, who rebounded this year under head coach Kirk Ferentz to finish 8-4.

Prediction: Iowa.

Link to this entry - Discuss this entry - Return to Blog Home

---