My Senseless, Way Too Early Look At The 2009 Schedule
posted by Scott Hood, Wednesday, February 11, 2009
GUARANTEED WINS: There will be an earthquake in Columbia if USC loses either of these games:
Florida Atlantic (9/19): Howard Schnellenberger has done a wonderful job building the owls program from the ground up. FAU has been to consecutive bowl games, including a Motor City Bowl win over Central Michigan in December. They return their quarterback (Rusty Smith) but the talent gap still favors USC by a considerable margin. In addition, this is the home opener, so I look for the Gamecocks to roll in their first opportunity to impress the home fans.
S.C. State (10/3): USC beat the Bulldogs by a 38-3 margin when the schools squared off in 2007 and the Gamecocks offense really didn’t play very well with multiple turnovers in the first half. In fact, the game is best known as the one in which Nathan Pepper suffered a season-ending knee injury. Right now, there’s no question USC will win the game. The question is by how much. S.C. State will take a fat paycheck back to Orangeburg.
LIKELY WINS: There are the games I believe USC will be favored by the oddsmakers to win and, in fact, should win:
At N.C. State (9/3): For those of you who forgot about the Wolfpack after their abysmal performance in Columbia in last year’s season opener, did you know N.C. State won their final four games and went to a bowl game? Tom O’Brien proved he was a pretty good coach at Boston College and he’s doing a nice job in Raleigh. N.C. State has a decent QB in Russell Wilson, the ACC Rookie of the year. Again, the fact USC has more talent and it’s the season opener again favors the Gamecocks. They might not win by 34 points, but it will be a happy ride home for the coaches, players and fans.
Kentucky (10/10): Death, taxes and USC beating Kentucky. It’s nine years and counting since the last time the Wildcats managed to beat the Gamecocks on the gridiron. There is nothing about the Kentucky team that convinces me they will walk into Williams-Brice Stadium and steal a victory. Randall Cobb is an adequate QB, but the losses on defense are steep. No matter where these two teams stand entering this game, USC always find a way to win. The same should hold true in 2009.
Vanderbilt (10/24: Can the Commodores actually beat USC in three consecutive seasons? Unlikely. D.J. Moore, a major thorn in the side to the Gamecocks for a couple of seasons, declared for the NFL Draft moments after Vanderbilt’s first bowl win since 1955. That huge sigh of relief you heard came from Steve Spurrier. Hopefully, two straight embarrassing losses to Vanderbilt will ensure the Gamecocks are ready for this one. They have no excuses. The game is at home. If USC isn’t hyped to play this game, something is seriously wrong.
At Arkansas (11/7): The Razorbacks should be improved in Bobby Petrino’s second season as head coach after a 5-7 season that concluded with an emotional last-minute victory over LSU. But QB Casey Dick will graduate, leaving Michigan transfer Ryan Mallet as the likely successor. This game should be closer than the contest played at Williams-Brice Stadium in early November, and could be decided by a touchdown or less. Arkansas dominated USC in 2006 and 2007 with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, but last year was a different story.
TOSS UPS: These are the games on which the 2009 season will turn. Earn a split of these games and USC should be looking at an eight-win season.
At Georgia (9/12): With Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno gone to the NFL, USC could be catching Georgia at the right time – early in the season when the Dawgs are still adjusting to a new offensive backfield. This game is always close. In fact, the last two games at Sanford Stadium have been decided by a total of six points. Who will be the new Georgia QB? Joe Cox is the most likely choice. Caleb King will try to fill Moreno’s large shoes. Obviously, USC must figure out a way to contain WR A.J. Greene.
Ole Miss (9/26): This might be the most entertaining game of the year. Houston Nutt marched into Oxford and quickly cleaned up the mess left by Ed Orgeron, leading Ole Miss to a 9-4 record. The game between the Gamecocks and Rebels last October was hard-fought and came down to a few big plays, most of which went in USC’s favor. Plenty of talent returns for Ole Miss, including stud DE Greg Hardy, which is one reason you see the Rebels in all of the pre-season polls. QB Jevan Snead returns along with most of the major skill position players.
At Tennessee (10/31): Based on Lane Kiffin’s theatrics since his hiring as Tennessee’s new head coach, do you think Spurrier would love to put Boy Wonder in his place on the Vols’ home field? You bet. These two teams have battled for third place in the SEC East the last couple of seasons. Tennessee should get thumped by Florida and Georgia prior to the meeting with the Gamecocks, so a lot will be at stake in this one. Eric Berry is one of the best defensive players in the nation, let alone the SEC.
Clemson (11/28): Okay, here’s the deal. Unless USC starts matching Clemson’s intensity and passion towards the rivalry, the Gamecocks figure to lose more than they win against the Tigers. Most of the games in recent years have been close, with last year’s game being an aberration. Clemson has questions at quarterback, though not at running back after C.J. Spiller announced he would return to Clemson. The last two games in Columbia have been decided by a total of six points. USC’s chances for victory could hinge largely on its ability to contain Spiller. After last November’s debacle, USC will look for redemption.
DOUBLE DIGIT UNDERDOGS: These are the games USC will need a Herculean effort to win. I expect USC will be heavy underdogs going into both of these games.
At Alabama (10/17): Nick Saban is building a powerhouse in Tuscaloosa with two top recruiting classes. As long as he wins, he’ll earn every penny of his $4 million annual salary in the eyes of the Crimson Tide faithful. USC’s best chance to prevail is for its defense to hold down the Crimson Tide offense while the offense tries to score against an Alabama defense that returns most of its starters from last season.
Florida (11/14): Florida has put half a century on the scoreboard the last two years against USC, outscoring the Gamecocks by a 107-37 margin. Tim Tebow has decided to return. There’s still plenty of speed all over the field even without Percy Harvin, who left for the NFL. The Gators should be the pre-season No. 1 team in most of the polls and should be the consensus pick to defend their 2008 national championship. The scary part of last season’s 56-6 dismantling in Gainesville is that Tebow was a non-factor. He managed the game and let the talent around him do its thing.
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I know there’s still seven months to go before the opening game, and talking in detail about how USC will fare against the upcoming schedule is probably improper, maybe even illegal, but I’m in the mood for a little civil disobedience, so here goes:
GUARANTEED WINS: There will be an earthquake in Columbia if USC loses either of these games:
Florida Atlantic (9/19): Howard Schnellenberger has done a wonderful job building the owls program from the ground up. FAU has been to consecutive bowl games, including a Motor City Bowl win over Central Michigan in December. They return their quarterback (Rusty Smith) but the talent gap still favors USC by a considerable margin. In addition, this is the home opener, so I look for the Gamecocks to roll in their first opportunity to impress the home fans.
S.C. State (10/3): USC beat the Bulldogs by a 38-3 margin when the schools squared off in 2007 and the Gamecocks offense really didn’t play very well with multiple turnovers in the first half. In fact, the game is best known as the one in which Nathan Pepper suffered a season-ending knee injury. Right now, there’s no question USC will win the game. The question is by how much. S.C. State will take a fat paycheck back to Orangeburg.
LIKELY WINS: There are the games I believe USC will be favored by the oddsmakers to win and, in fact, should win:
At N.C. State (9/3): For those of you who forgot about the Wolfpack after their abysmal performance in Columbia in last year’s season opener, did you know N.C. State won their final four games and went to a bowl game? Tom O’Brien proved he was a pretty good coach at Boston College and he’s doing a nice job in Raleigh. N.C. State has a decent QB in Russell Wilson, the ACC Rookie of the year. Again, the fact USC has more talent and it’s the season opener again favors the Gamecocks. They might not win by 34 points, but it will be a happy ride home for the coaches, players and fans.
Kentucky (10/10): Death, taxes and USC beating Kentucky. It’s nine years and counting since the last time the Wildcats managed to beat the Gamecocks on the gridiron. There is nothing about the Kentucky team that convinces me they will walk into Williams-Brice Stadium and steal a victory. Randall Cobb is an adequate QB, but the losses on defense are steep. No matter where these two teams stand entering this game, USC always find a way to win. The same should hold true in 2009.
Vanderbilt (10/24: Can the Commodores actually beat USC in three consecutive seasons? Unlikely. D.J. Moore, a major thorn in the side to the Gamecocks for a couple of seasons, declared for the NFL Draft moments after Vanderbilt’s first bowl win since 1955. That huge sigh of relief you heard came from Steve Spurrier. Hopefully, two straight embarrassing losses to Vanderbilt will ensure the Gamecocks are ready for this one. They have no excuses. The game is at home. If USC isn’t hyped to play this game, something is seriously wrong.
At Arkansas (11/7): The Razorbacks should be improved in Bobby Petrino’s second season as head coach after a 5-7 season that concluded with an emotional last-minute victory over LSU. But QB Casey Dick will graduate, leaving Michigan transfer Ryan Mallet as the likely successor. This game should be closer than the contest played at Williams-Brice Stadium in early November, and could be decided by a touchdown or less. Arkansas dominated USC in 2006 and 2007 with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, but last year was a different story.
TOSS UPS: These are the games on which the 2009 season will turn. Earn a split of these games and USC should be looking at an eight-win season.
At Georgia (9/12): With Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno gone to the NFL, USC could be catching Georgia at the right time – early in the season when the Dawgs are still adjusting to a new offensive backfield. This game is always close. In fact, the last two games at Sanford Stadium have been decided by a total of six points. Who will be the new Georgia QB? Joe Cox is the most likely choice. Caleb King will try to fill Moreno’s large shoes. Obviously, USC must figure out a way to contain WR A.J. Greene.
Ole Miss (9/26): This might be the most entertaining game of the year. Houston Nutt marched into Oxford and quickly cleaned up the mess left by Ed Orgeron, leading Ole Miss to a 9-4 record. The game between the Gamecocks and Rebels last October was hard-fought and came down to a few big plays, most of which went in USC’s favor. Plenty of talent returns for Ole Miss, including stud DE Greg Hardy, which is one reason you see the Rebels in all of the pre-season polls. QB Jevan Snead returns along with most of the major skill position players.
At Tennessee (10/31): Based on Lane Kiffin’s theatrics since his hiring as Tennessee’s new head coach, do you think Spurrier would love to put Boy Wonder in his place on the Vols’ home field? You bet. These two teams have battled for third place in the SEC East the last couple of seasons. Tennessee should get thumped by Florida and Georgia prior to the meeting with the Gamecocks, so a lot will be at stake in this one. Eric Berry is one of the best defensive players in the nation, let alone the SEC.
Clemson (11/28): Okay, here’s the deal. Unless USC starts matching Clemson’s intensity and passion towards the rivalry, the Gamecocks figure to lose more than they win against the Tigers. Most of the games in recent years have been close, with last year’s game being an aberration. Clemson has questions at quarterback, though not at running back after C.J. Spiller announced he would return to Clemson. The last two games in Columbia have been decided by a total of six points. USC’s chances for victory could hinge largely on its ability to contain Spiller. After last November’s debacle, USC will look for redemption.
DOUBLE DIGIT UNDERDOGS: These are the games USC will need a Herculean effort to win. I expect USC will be heavy underdogs going into both of these games.
At Alabama (10/17): Nick Saban is building a powerhouse in Tuscaloosa with two top recruiting classes. As long as he wins, he’ll earn every penny of his $4 million annual salary in the eyes of the Crimson Tide faithful. USC’s best chance to prevail is for its defense to hold down the Crimson Tide offense while the offense tries to score against an Alabama defense that returns most of its starters from last season.
Florida (11/14): Florida has put half a century on the scoreboard the last two years against USC, outscoring the Gamecocks by a 107-37 margin. Tim Tebow has decided to return. There’s still plenty of speed all over the field even without Percy Harvin, who left for the NFL. The Gators should be the pre-season No. 1 team in most of the polls and should be the consensus pick to defend their 2008 national championship. The scary part of last season’s 56-6 dismantling in Gainesville is that Tebow was a non-factor. He managed the game and let the talent around him do its thing.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.