Assessing USC's Chances Of Beating The Rebels
posted by Scott Hood, Wednesday, September 23, 2009
So, why do I have the feeling USC will beat No. 4 Ole Miss Thursday night?
First, USC has typically played well on Thursday night, the second half of the gut-wrenching Vanderbilt loss last year being the lone exception.
In 2006, Auburn arrived in Columbia with a No. 2 national ranking expecting to route the Gamecocks. But the contest was hard-fought throughout and came down to the final play. The Tigers didn’t secure the win until a last-second pass by Syvelle Newton into the end zone was knocked down.
Of course, the last time USC faced a Top 10 team at home on Thursday night, they dominated Kentucky in a 38-23 win that represented the apex of the 2007 season.
Second, the mere fact this game is being played on Thursday rather than Saturday helps USC. The Rebels must spend Wednesday traveling to Columbia while the USC players will be able to sleep in their own beds and generally follow their day-before-the-game routine.
In my opinion, USC has clearly played a tougher schedule (2 of the first 3 games against opponents from BCS conferences) than Ole Miss (Memphis and Southeastern Louisiana), a reality that should provide a key edge for the Gamecocks.
In short, USC should be better prepared to play this game. It might take Ole Miss a quarter or more to adjust to the speed of the game. By that point, will it be too late?
In my opinion, the impact of the early season schedule played an integral role in last Saturday’s Florida-Tennessee game. Why was the game much closer than people thought? Florida’s first two games came against Charleston Southern and Troy.
Thus, when it came time to kickoff against the Vols, Florida had not encountered the same quality of defense that Tennessee put on the field. There was a huge difference in speed between the Vols and UF’s first two opponents. Eric Berry is flat out one of the best players in college football.
Also, I can’t help but believe Ole Miss is a little bit overrated at No. 4. Are they a Top 20 team? Probably. But Top 5? I don’t think so. They struggled offensively for three quarters against Memphis in the season opener and generally dialed to impress.
Right now, Ole Miss finds itself in the same spot as the 2007 Gamecock team. That year, USC kept rising in the polls when the teams in front of them kept getting knocked off. Suddenly, USC found itself at No. 6 in the BCS rankings with a 6-1 record.
But, as we know, they couldn’t handle prosperity and lost to Vanderbilt at home in a dreadful afternoon of football.
The hype surrounding Ole Miss started well before the season. Jevan Snead at quarterback could be the insulation protecting the Rebels from the same type of catastrophic collapse that USC suffered through two years ago.
Snead, though, is off to bit of a slow start. He turned it on in the fourth quarter of the Memphis win. Through two games, he’s completed 56 percent of his passes, a good but not great figure.
While the USC defense is struggling with nagging injuries and one of its best players (DT Ladi Ajiboye) has yet to play a game, the speed Snead will encounter on Thursday night should be far superior to what he’s seen so far in 2009.
Also, the series between USC and Ole Miss has been very close over the years. Eleven of the 14 all-time meetings between the Gamecocks and Rebels have been decided by a touchdown or less.
The fact the point spread has stayed at three to four points shows the oddsmakers believe the game will be close, as well even though the team’s national rankings suggest a route.
Right now, most of the evidence suggests another close, down to the wire game between two teams trying to crack into the upper echelon of the SEC on an annual basis. A late field goal could be the difference.
Thus, Thursday’s game should boil down to who makes plays in the fourth quarter and puts their team in position to win. USC made the plays in Oxford a year ago. Ole Miss made the big play in 2004.
Who will make the key play this year?
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You’ve seen the numbers. South Carolina is 1-31 against Top Five schools in their history, including a 0-19 mark at Williams-Brice Stadium.
So, why do I have the feeling USC will beat No. 4 Ole Miss Thursday night?
First, USC has typically played well on Thursday night, the second half of the gut-wrenching Vanderbilt loss last year being the lone exception.
In 2006, Auburn arrived in Columbia with a No. 2 national ranking expecting to route the Gamecocks. But the contest was hard-fought throughout and came down to the final play. The Tigers didn’t secure the win until a last-second pass by Syvelle Newton into the end zone was knocked down.
Of course, the last time USC faced a Top 10 team at home on Thursday night, they dominated Kentucky in a 38-23 win that represented the apex of the 2007 season.
Second, the mere fact this game is being played on Thursday rather than Saturday helps USC. The Rebels must spend Wednesday traveling to Columbia while the USC players will be able to sleep in their own beds and generally follow their day-before-the-game routine.
In my opinion, USC has clearly played a tougher schedule (2 of the first 3 games against opponents from BCS conferences) than Ole Miss (Memphis and Southeastern Louisiana), a reality that should provide a key edge for the Gamecocks.
In short, USC should be better prepared to play this game. It might take Ole Miss a quarter or more to adjust to the speed of the game. By that point, will it be too late?
In my opinion, the impact of the early season schedule played an integral role in last Saturday’s Florida-Tennessee game. Why was the game much closer than people thought? Florida’s first two games came against Charleston Southern and Troy.
Thus, when it came time to kickoff against the Vols, Florida had not encountered the same quality of defense that Tennessee put on the field. There was a huge difference in speed between the Vols and UF’s first two opponents. Eric Berry is flat out one of the best players in college football.
Also, I can’t help but believe Ole Miss is a little bit overrated at No. 4. Are they a Top 20 team? Probably. But Top 5? I don’t think so. They struggled offensively for three quarters against Memphis in the season opener and generally dialed to impress.
Right now, Ole Miss finds itself in the same spot as the 2007 Gamecock team. That year, USC kept rising in the polls when the teams in front of them kept getting knocked off. Suddenly, USC found itself at No. 6 in the BCS rankings with a 6-1 record.
But, as we know, they couldn’t handle prosperity and lost to Vanderbilt at home in a dreadful afternoon of football.
The hype surrounding Ole Miss started well before the season. Jevan Snead at quarterback could be the insulation protecting the Rebels from the same type of catastrophic collapse that USC suffered through two years ago.
Snead, though, is off to bit of a slow start. He turned it on in the fourth quarter of the Memphis win. Through two games, he’s completed 56 percent of his passes, a good but not great figure.
While the USC defense is struggling with nagging injuries and one of its best players (DT Ladi Ajiboye) has yet to play a game, the speed Snead will encounter on Thursday night should be far superior to what he’s seen so far in 2009.
Also, the series between USC and Ole Miss has been very close over the years. Eleven of the 14 all-time meetings between the Gamecocks and Rebels have been decided by a touchdown or less.
The fact the point spread has stayed at three to four points shows the oddsmakers believe the game will be close, as well even though the team’s national rankings suggest a route.
Right now, most of the evidence suggests another close, down to the wire game between two teams trying to crack into the upper echelon of the SEC on an annual basis. A late field goal could be the difference.
Thus, Thursday’s game should boil down to who makes plays in the fourth quarter and puts their team in position to win. USC made the plays in Oxford a year ago. Ole Miss made the big play in 2004.
Who will make the key play this year?
Link to this entry - Discuss this entry - Return to Blog Home
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.