Five Predictions For The USC-Arkansas Game
posted by Scott Hood, Friday, November 06, 2009
1. Stephen Garcia Will Throw For More Yards Than Ryan Mallett: The official packet of SEC statistics the media receives each week shows Mallett has thrown for an average 268.5 yards per game, while USC’s Stephen Garcia is second with an average of 232.7 ypg. However, when you compare how the two quarterbacks have fared against SEC defenses, the numbers narrow significantly. Mallett has completed 47.8 percent of his passes for 1,351 yards in five SEC games for an average of 270.2 ypg. Garcia has a higher completion percentage (54.4 percent) against SEC defenses while averaging 265.3 yards per game. That’s a difference of less than 5.0 yards per game. Mallett must face a much better pass defense on Saturday while the Arkansas pass defense Garcia will throw against is ranked 12th in the conference.
2. Alshon Jeffery Will Have At Least Five Receptions and 100 Receiving Yards: Starting with his breakout game against Kentucky on Oct. 10, Jeffrey has averaged 5.8 receptions and 109 receiving yards per game. The cornerbacks for Arkansas are 5-9 and 6-0. Thus, Jeffery will enjoy a significant height advantage. In fact, only two of the defensive backs listed on the Arkansas depth chart are taller than 6-0. I expect USC will try to create 1-on-1 situations for Jeffery and then throw fade passes and other types of throws that will force Jeffery to go up and get the ball.
3. USC Will Win The Turnover Battle: Except for last week’s Tenenssee game when they had four turnovers, the Gamecocks have done a good job protecting the football this season. USC entered that game with a plus-four rating in the turnover margin. But the combination of a hard-hitting Vols defense and a slick football from the cold rainy weather conspired to help produce the season-high number of turnovers from USC. The weather Saturday in Fayetteville at kickoff is expected to be close to perfect - sunny skies with temperatures in the low 70’s. The only thing to be possibly concerned about are forecasted wind gusts of 16 to 17 mph.
4. The Pro-Razorback Crowd Will Be Mostly Docile: In the SEC, there’s a big difference between day and night football when it comes to crowd noise. Typically, the crowds are much louder and rowdier at night in most SEC stadiums. Much like USC, Arkansas prescribes to the general rule. Kickoff Saturday will occur at approx. 11:20 a.m. local time. Do you really think the crowd is going to be fired up? Probably not. The lack of noise should only help USC. If you recall, the 2005 USC-Arkansas game kicked off in the early afternoon too and USC played well enough defensively and made just enough plays on offense to pick up a 14-10 win.
5. Garrett Chisolm Will Grade Out The Best USC Offensive Lineman: Chisolm will be making his first career start for the Gamecocks on Saturday, so there isn‘t much to go on. It’s a clean slate. But if his excellent performance in the second half of the Tennessee game offered us an accurate barometer of coming attractions, Chisolm will quickly become one of USC’s most reliable linemen. Steve Spurrier talked this week about how defenders like Nathan Pepper and Ladi Ajiboye didn’t like going up against Chisolm in practice when he first arrived. If quality tackles like those guys didn’t want to tangle with Chisolm, what do you think opposing defensive linemen will say?
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South Carolina and Arkansas square off Saturday afternoon at Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. USC is trying to beat the Hogs for the second straight year. If so, it would mark the third time that has happened in the rivalry. Here are five things we think will happen in the game:
1. Stephen Garcia Will Throw For More Yards Than Ryan Mallett: The official packet of SEC statistics the media receives each week shows Mallett has thrown for an average 268.5 yards per game, while USC’s Stephen Garcia is second with an average of 232.7 ypg. However, when you compare how the two quarterbacks have fared against SEC defenses, the numbers narrow significantly. Mallett has completed 47.8 percent of his passes for 1,351 yards in five SEC games for an average of 270.2 ypg. Garcia has a higher completion percentage (54.4 percent) against SEC defenses while averaging 265.3 yards per game. That’s a difference of less than 5.0 yards per game. Mallett must face a much better pass defense on Saturday while the Arkansas pass defense Garcia will throw against is ranked 12th in the conference.
2. Alshon Jeffery Will Have At Least Five Receptions and 100 Receiving Yards: Starting with his breakout game against Kentucky on Oct. 10, Jeffrey has averaged 5.8 receptions and 109 receiving yards per game. The cornerbacks for Arkansas are 5-9 and 6-0. Thus, Jeffery will enjoy a significant height advantage. In fact, only two of the defensive backs listed on the Arkansas depth chart are taller than 6-0. I expect USC will try to create 1-on-1 situations for Jeffery and then throw fade passes and other types of throws that will force Jeffery to go up and get the ball.
3. USC Will Win The Turnover Battle: Except for last week’s Tenenssee game when they had four turnovers, the Gamecocks have done a good job protecting the football this season. USC entered that game with a plus-four rating in the turnover margin. But the combination of a hard-hitting Vols defense and a slick football from the cold rainy weather conspired to help produce the season-high number of turnovers from USC. The weather Saturday in Fayetteville at kickoff is expected to be close to perfect - sunny skies with temperatures in the low 70’s. The only thing to be possibly concerned about are forecasted wind gusts of 16 to 17 mph.
4. The Pro-Razorback Crowd Will Be Mostly Docile: In the SEC, there’s a big difference between day and night football when it comes to crowd noise. Typically, the crowds are much louder and rowdier at night in most SEC stadiums. Much like USC, Arkansas prescribes to the general rule. Kickoff Saturday will occur at approx. 11:20 a.m. local time. Do you really think the crowd is going to be fired up? Probably not. The lack of noise should only help USC. If you recall, the 2005 USC-Arkansas game kicked off in the early afternoon too and USC played well enough defensively and made just enough plays on offense to pick up a 14-10 win.
5. Garrett Chisolm Will Grade Out The Best USC Offensive Lineman: Chisolm will be making his first career start for the Gamecocks on Saturday, so there isn‘t much to go on. It’s a clean slate. But if his excellent performance in the second half of the Tennessee game offered us an accurate barometer of coming attractions, Chisolm will quickly become one of USC’s most reliable linemen. Steve Spurrier talked this week about how defenders like Nathan Pepper and Ladi Ajiboye didn’t like going up against Chisolm in practice when he first arrived. If quality tackles like those guys didn’t want to tangle with Chisolm, what do you think opposing defensive linemen will say?
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.