Five Predictions For The USC-Florida Game
posted by Scott Hood, Saturday, November 14, 2009
1. Florida Will Run The Ball 75 Percent Of The Time: So far this season, Florida has rushed for 2,353 yards, more than the 2005 and 2006 UF teams tallied in the entire season. With fewer weapons on the outside, the Gators have turned to a power running game to ignite their offensive attack. Florida has run the ball 65.5 percent of the time this season with QB Tim Tebow leading the way with 155 attempts. Saturday, they encounter a USC defense ranked eighth in the SEC in rushing defense (145.6 ypg). Since DL Travian Robertson went out, the Gamecocks had struggled to stop the run until last week’s loss at Arkansas when the Razorbacks mustered 76 yards on the ground. But here’s an urgent bulletin: the Gators aren’t Arkansas. They will pound the ball all day and dare the Gamecocks to stop them.
2. USC’s Leading Pass Catcher Won’t Be A Wide Receiver: Florida possesses possibly the best secondary in the entire country. Safeties Will Hill and Ahmad Black are phenomenal. The Gators lead the SEC with 15 interceptions. USC, second behind UF in pass defense, has five. But picking off passes is something Florida has done well over the past several years. Since Charlie Strong became the defensive coordinator in 2003, UF has intercepted 118 passes, the fourth highest total in the nation. They can flat out cover too. Georgia’s A.J. Green was held to three receptions for a season-low 50 yards two weeks ago. As a result, USC probably won’t throw the ball deep often on Saturday. Receivers like Alshon Jeffery, Moe Brown and Tori Gurley could have trouble getting open. Look for USC to throw short to medium passes to the tight ends or running backs circling out of the backfield.
3. The USC Defense Will Create At Least One Turnover: The Florida offense hasn’t committed a turnover in two games. The USC defense hasn’t created a turnover in three games. Something must give and both streaks will come to an end Saturday. Florida has 13 turnovers in nine games, including nine fumbles, third highest in the SEC. USC has forced 13 turnovers, but none since the Alabama game. The Gamecocks have made it a point of emphasis this week in practice to force turnovers. Look for the ball on the ground at least once on Saturday.
4. Both Teams Will Convert Less Than 40 Percent Of Their Third Down Chances: Florida leads the league in third down conversions with a 45.1 percent success rate (51 of 113). Earlier this week, Steve Spurrier described Tim Tebow as the best third-down college quarterback ever. USC has allowed opponents to convert 37.9 percent of third downs, the 11th highest percentage in the SEC. On the other side, USC has converted 40.0 percent (58 of 145) of third down opportunities, while the Florida defense is second in the SEC behind Ole Miss by allowing opponents to convert 27.0 percent of third downs (34-126). With both teams possessing strong defenses, the level of success on third downs could be fairly low.
5. The Wounded Warrior Uniforms Will Be A Big Hit: USC has full embraced the Wounded Warrior Project and will wear specially designed black-and-desert uniforms Saturday as a way to promote the organization and honor the U.S. troops all over the globe. After the game, the uniforms will be auctioned off with 100 percent of the proceeds going to the WWP. Rather than have the players names on the back of the jerseys, they will be replaced by certain core values such as Duty, Honor and Courage.
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South Carolina squares off with No. 1 Florida Saturday afternoon at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia. Here are five things I predict will happen in the game:
1. Florida Will Run The Ball 75 Percent Of The Time: So far this season, Florida has rushed for 2,353 yards, more than the 2005 and 2006 UF teams tallied in the entire season. With fewer weapons on the outside, the Gators have turned to a power running game to ignite their offensive attack. Florida has run the ball 65.5 percent of the time this season with QB Tim Tebow leading the way with 155 attempts. Saturday, they encounter a USC defense ranked eighth in the SEC in rushing defense (145.6 ypg). Since DL Travian Robertson went out, the Gamecocks had struggled to stop the run until last week’s loss at Arkansas when the Razorbacks mustered 76 yards on the ground. But here’s an urgent bulletin: the Gators aren’t Arkansas. They will pound the ball all day and dare the Gamecocks to stop them.
2. USC’s Leading Pass Catcher Won’t Be A Wide Receiver: Florida possesses possibly the best secondary in the entire country. Safeties Will Hill and Ahmad Black are phenomenal. The Gators lead the SEC with 15 interceptions. USC, second behind UF in pass defense, has five. But picking off passes is something Florida has done well over the past several years. Since Charlie Strong became the defensive coordinator in 2003, UF has intercepted 118 passes, the fourth highest total in the nation. They can flat out cover too. Georgia’s A.J. Green was held to three receptions for a season-low 50 yards two weeks ago. As a result, USC probably won’t throw the ball deep often on Saturday. Receivers like Alshon Jeffery, Moe Brown and Tori Gurley could have trouble getting open. Look for USC to throw short to medium passes to the tight ends or running backs circling out of the backfield.
3. The USC Defense Will Create At Least One Turnover: The Florida offense hasn’t committed a turnover in two games. The USC defense hasn’t created a turnover in three games. Something must give and both streaks will come to an end Saturday. Florida has 13 turnovers in nine games, including nine fumbles, third highest in the SEC. USC has forced 13 turnovers, but none since the Alabama game. The Gamecocks have made it a point of emphasis this week in practice to force turnovers. Look for the ball on the ground at least once on Saturday.
4. Both Teams Will Convert Less Than 40 Percent Of Their Third Down Chances: Florida leads the league in third down conversions with a 45.1 percent success rate (51 of 113). Earlier this week, Steve Spurrier described Tim Tebow as the best third-down college quarterback ever. USC has allowed opponents to convert 37.9 percent of third downs, the 11th highest percentage in the SEC. On the other side, USC has converted 40.0 percent (58 of 145) of third down opportunities, while the Florida defense is second in the SEC behind Ole Miss by allowing opponents to convert 27.0 percent of third downs (34-126). With both teams possessing strong defenses, the level of success on third downs could be fairly low.
5. The Wounded Warrior Uniforms Will Be A Big Hit: USC has full embraced the Wounded Warrior Project and will wear specially designed black-and-desert uniforms Saturday as a way to promote the organization and honor the U.S. troops all over the globe. After the game, the uniforms will be auctioned off with 100 percent of the proceeds going to the WWP. Rather than have the players names on the back of the jerseys, they will be replaced by certain core values such as Duty, Honor and Courage.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.