Latest SEC Bowl Projections - 11/23
posted by Scott Hood, Monday, November 23, 2009
Mississippi State’s 42-21 loss to Arkansas in Little Rock was the Bulldogs’ seventh setback of the season, knocking them from the ranks of SEC teams capable of achieving bowl eligibility.
That means two conference teams have now fallen out of bowl contention - Vanderbilt (2-10) and Miss. State (4-7). Since the SEC has eight bowl tie-ins beyond the BCS, up to 10 teams from the conference could earn bowl bids.
Therefore, as long as both Florida and Alabama remain unbeaten entering the Dec. 5 SEC Championship game - all but assuring both teams will end up in the BCS - USC (6-5) should earn a bowl bid no matter the outcome of next Saturday’s noon battle with arch-rival Clemson.
However, unless the Gamecocks snap a two-game losing streak to the Tigers, they will likely end up in the Independence Bowl in Shreveport or the Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham.
A couple of surprising results over the weekend in the SEC have shaken up the bowl picture. First, the dramatic 25-23 victory by Ole Miss over SEC West rival LSU has put the Rebels in the driver’s seat for a spot in the Capital One Bowl as long as they beat cross-state rival Miss. State in the Egg Bowl on Saturday.
If LSU beats Arkansas in Baton Rouge, the Tigers will finish with nine wins and likely claim the SEC’s spot in the Cotton Bowl. If the Razorbacks win, they could end up in Dallas and LSU could fall to the Outback or Chick-fil-A Bowl. Since the Tigers are home, I’ll predict a LSU win.
The biggest question right now is what happens to the Outback Bowl. Kentucky’s stunning 34-27 victory over Georgia in Athens means this Saturday’s Tennessee-Kentucky battle at Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington this weekend could be for the right to go to Tampa. A Wildcats win would give them eight wins, while Tennessee is searching for that elusive seventh win while trying to avoid a 6-6 campaign in Lane Kiffin’s first season as head coach.
I’ll predict Kentucky will continue their late-season resurgence and beat Tennessee for the first time since the 1980’s.
If Auburn is somehow able to shock the college football world and beat bitter rival Alabama in the Iron Bowl on Friday, the Tigers could end up in the Outback Bowl or Chick-Fil-A Bowl. But, if they lose, they could fall all the way to Birmingham for the Papajohns.com Bowl.
However, even with a loss to the Tide, they could still land in Atlanta.
Georgia, meanwhile, is licking its wounds following its first home setback to Kentucky since 1977. Now they must figure out a way to stop Georgia Tech’s tricky option offense with a defense that has been surrendering points and yards by the boatload in 2009.
Where does that leave USC? If this upcoming weekend’s slate of games play out according to form, as many as three SEC teams will end up with 7-5 records. That means one will have to play in Shreveport or Birmingham. Could that team end up being the Gamecocks?
The Independence Bowl has priority over the Papajohns.com Bowl, and I can’t see that bowl missing out on the opportunity to bring Georgia to Shreveport for a potential “Big Boy” clash with Oklahoma.
At the same time, if Oklahoma finishes 6-6, USC head coach Steve Spurrier could cherish the chance to square off with his buddy Bob Stoops.
Here’s my projected win breakdown:
13 Wins: Alabama
12 Wins: Florida
10 Wins: None
9 Wins: Ole Miss, LSU;
8 Wins: Kentucky
7 Wins: USC, Auburn, Arkansas;
6 Wins: Georgia, Tennessee.
Eliminated: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt.
Music City Bowl President Scott Ramsey told The Tennessean in Nashville late last week that the three SEC teams most likely to end up playing at LP Field are Auburn, Georgia and Tennessee. However, the Bulldogs may have played themselves out of contention for Nashville unless they upset (GT is a 10-point favorite) the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta.
Right now, here’s how I see the bowl season lining up for the SEC:
BCS Championship Game: Alabama
Sugar (BCS): Florida
Capital One: Ole Miss
Outback: Kentucky
Cotton: LSU
Chick-Fil-A: Auburn
Music City: Tennessee
Liberty: Arkansas
Independence: Georgia
Papajohns.com: USC
If USC beats Clemson, do the Gamecocks deserve to play in better bowl than Birmingham? Yes. But I think the Music City Bowl will succumb to local politics and take a six-win Tennessee team over USC. Arkansas gets to stay close to home, as well, with the short trip to Memphis.
It appears the Chick-fil-A Bowl will have to settle for a seven-win team for the second year in a row. USC could end up here with a win over Clemson but I believe they’ll select Auburn. The latest blog from Chick-fil-A Bowl team selection committee chairman Leeman Bennett doesn’t even mention the Gamecocks as a possibility.
A win over Clemson, together with a Tennessee win over Kentucky, could move USC up the bowl ladder. Kentucky could drop all the way to Birmingham with a loss to the Vols.
If USC ends up in Birmingham, who would they play? One intriguing possibility is Notre Dame, if they finish the season with a loss at Stanford and end up 6-6 in what should be Charlie Weis' final season as head coach of the Irish. Notre Dame has a business relationship with the Big East and could claim this spot.
SEC SCORES (Sat. Nov. 21)
Arkansas 42, Miss. State 21`
Florida 62, Florida International 3
Alabama 45, Tennessee-Chattanooga 0
Ole Miss 25, LSU 23
Tennessee 31, Vanderbilt 16
Kentucky 34, Georgia 27
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South Carolina took a step closer towards securing a bowl berth Saturday even though the Gamecocks enjoyed their lone bye week of the season.
Mississippi State’s 42-21 loss to Arkansas in Little Rock was the Bulldogs’ seventh setback of the season, knocking them from the ranks of SEC teams capable of achieving bowl eligibility.
That means two conference teams have now fallen out of bowl contention - Vanderbilt (2-10) and Miss. State (4-7). Since the SEC has eight bowl tie-ins beyond the BCS, up to 10 teams from the conference could earn bowl bids.
Therefore, as long as both Florida and Alabama remain unbeaten entering the Dec. 5 SEC Championship game - all but assuring both teams will end up in the BCS - USC (6-5) should earn a bowl bid no matter the outcome of next Saturday’s noon battle with arch-rival Clemson.
However, unless the Gamecocks snap a two-game losing streak to the Tigers, they will likely end up in the Independence Bowl in Shreveport or the Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham.
A couple of surprising results over the weekend in the SEC have shaken up the bowl picture. First, the dramatic 25-23 victory by Ole Miss over SEC West rival LSU has put the Rebels in the driver’s seat for a spot in the Capital One Bowl as long as they beat cross-state rival Miss. State in the Egg Bowl on Saturday.
If LSU beats Arkansas in Baton Rouge, the Tigers will finish with nine wins and likely claim the SEC’s spot in the Cotton Bowl. If the Razorbacks win, they could end up in Dallas and LSU could fall to the Outback or Chick-fil-A Bowl. Since the Tigers are home, I’ll predict a LSU win.
The biggest question right now is what happens to the Outback Bowl. Kentucky’s stunning 34-27 victory over Georgia in Athens means this Saturday’s Tennessee-Kentucky battle at Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington this weekend could be for the right to go to Tampa. A Wildcats win would give them eight wins, while Tennessee is searching for that elusive seventh win while trying to avoid a 6-6 campaign in Lane Kiffin’s first season as head coach.
I’ll predict Kentucky will continue their late-season resurgence and beat Tennessee for the first time since the 1980’s.
If Auburn is somehow able to shock the college football world and beat bitter rival Alabama in the Iron Bowl on Friday, the Tigers could end up in the Outback Bowl or Chick-Fil-A Bowl. But, if they lose, they could fall all the way to Birmingham for the Papajohns.com Bowl.
However, even with a loss to the Tide, they could still land in Atlanta.
Georgia, meanwhile, is licking its wounds following its first home setback to Kentucky since 1977. Now they must figure out a way to stop Georgia Tech’s tricky option offense with a defense that has been surrendering points and yards by the boatload in 2009.
Where does that leave USC? If this upcoming weekend’s slate of games play out according to form, as many as three SEC teams will end up with 7-5 records. That means one will have to play in Shreveport or Birmingham. Could that team end up being the Gamecocks?
The Independence Bowl has priority over the Papajohns.com Bowl, and I can’t see that bowl missing out on the opportunity to bring Georgia to Shreveport for a potential “Big Boy” clash with Oklahoma.
At the same time, if Oklahoma finishes 6-6, USC head coach Steve Spurrier could cherish the chance to square off with his buddy Bob Stoops.
Here’s my projected win breakdown:
13 Wins: Alabama
12 Wins: Florida
10 Wins: None
9 Wins: Ole Miss, LSU;
8 Wins: Kentucky
7 Wins: USC, Auburn, Arkansas;
6 Wins: Georgia, Tennessee.
Eliminated: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt.
Music City Bowl President Scott Ramsey told The Tennessean in Nashville late last week that the three SEC teams most likely to end up playing at LP Field are Auburn, Georgia and Tennessee. However, the Bulldogs may have played themselves out of contention for Nashville unless they upset (GT is a 10-point favorite) the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta.
Right now, here’s how I see the bowl season lining up for the SEC:
BCS Championship Game: Alabama
Sugar (BCS): Florida
Capital One: Ole Miss
Outback: Kentucky
Cotton: LSU
Chick-Fil-A: Auburn
Music City: Tennessee
Liberty: Arkansas
Independence: Georgia
Papajohns.com: USC
If USC beats Clemson, do the Gamecocks deserve to play in better bowl than Birmingham? Yes. But I think the Music City Bowl will succumb to local politics and take a six-win Tennessee team over USC. Arkansas gets to stay close to home, as well, with the short trip to Memphis.
It appears the Chick-fil-A Bowl will have to settle for a seven-win team for the second year in a row. USC could end up here with a win over Clemson but I believe they’ll select Auburn. The latest blog from Chick-fil-A Bowl team selection committee chairman Leeman Bennett doesn’t even mention the Gamecocks as a possibility.
A win over Clemson, together with a Tennessee win over Kentucky, could move USC up the bowl ladder. Kentucky could drop all the way to Birmingham with a loss to the Vols.
If USC ends up in Birmingham, who would they play? One intriguing possibility is Notre Dame, if they finish the season with a loss at Stanford and end up 6-6 in what should be Charlie Weis' final season as head coach of the Irish. Notre Dame has a business relationship with the Big East and could claim this spot.
SEC SCORES (Sat. Nov. 21)
Arkansas 42, Miss. State 21`
Florida 62, Florida International 3
Alabama 45, Tennessee-Chattanooga 0
Ole Miss 25, LSU 23
Tennessee 31, Vanderbilt 16
Kentucky 34, Georgia 27
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.