My Latest SEC Bowl Projections Sure To Come True
posted by Scott Hood, Tuesday, November 17, 2009
However, the number of bowl eligible teams increased to nine with Georgia, Kentucky and Arkansas all gaining that required sixth victory.
It remains my opinion that as many as five teams will finish 7-5, including South Carolina.
However, my view of who will win the SEC championship game has changed. Until seeing the Florida offense in person, I believed the Gators would win. But now I’m convinced the stout Alabama defense will shut down QB Tim Tebow and the UF offense. The Gators have one threat at wide receiver (Riley Cooper) and Tebow remains the primary running threat. That’s not enough against the senior-laden Alabama defense.
I think Alabama head coach Nick Saban, considered by some the preeminent defensive mind in the country, will figure out a way to stop Florida.
As a result, I’m predicting the Crimson Tide will run the table and earn a berth in the BCS Championship game against Texas.
A 12-1 Florida team should play in the Sugar Bowl for the first time since 2000.
LSU escaped Louisiana Tech, 24-16, and should go 2-0 in their final pair of regular season games against Ole Miss and Arkansas, giving them a final record of 10-2 and a spot in the Capital One Bowl.
However, if Ole Miss is able to knock off the Bayou Bengals this weekend in Oxford, the Rebels could land in Orlando one year after head coach Houston Nutt campaigned hard for a spot in that bowl.
Last week I forecasted Georgia, Tennessee and Arkansas would all win two of their final three games down the stretch, while USC would finish 1-1 with a win over Clemson.
Nothing occurred this past weekend to deviate from my prediction. Georgia should beat Kentucky at home Saturday night before facing Peach State rival Georgia Tech on Nov. 28. If the Bulldogs upset their in-state rival and finish 8-4, they could claim the Outback Bowl slot. However, the pick here is UGA will have a tough time stopping Tech’s option attack.
As for the other potential seven-win teams, Tennessee should be able to take care of Vanderbilt and Kentucky in their last two games, while Auburn will lose to Alabama on Nov. 27. Arkansas will bat Miss. State Saturday before falling to LSU in Baton Rouge.
Here’s my projected win breakdown for the SEC’s bowl eligible teams:
13 Wins: Alabama
12 Wins: Florida
10 Wins: LSU
9 Wins: None
8 Wins: Ole Miss
7 Wins: USC, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas.
6 Wins: Kentucky.
Eliminated: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt.
Setting the bowl lineup at the top is fairly easy. Florida and Alabama will participate in the BCS, while LSU will play a Big 10 team in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando.
I still believe the Cotton Bowl, which has first preference of teams from the SEC West after the BCS and Capital One Bowl picks, will bypass an eight-win Ole Miss team because the Rebels played in that bowl game last year.
I’ll again predict the Cotton Bowl will allow the Outback Bowl to take the Rebels. After that, the Cotton Bowl will take seven-win Auburn, although USC, Georgia or Tennessee could all end up there as well.
With local favorite Georgia likely available, the Chick-fil-A Bowl won’t be able to resist temptation or political pressure and will take the Bulldogs.
With Georgia off the board, that means the Music City and Liberty Bowl, both based in the Tennessee, will split the Gamecocks and the Vols. In my opinion, after speaking with the President and CEO of the Music City Bowl last week, he’s intrigued by a USC v. North Carolina matchup in Nashville and I got the sense that’s their ‘dream matchup.’
If USC loses to Clemson, they’ll likely fall to the Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham to face a Big East team. What could be intriguing about that is Notre Dame has an arrangement with the Big East (ND is a member of the Big East in basketball) that allows them to fill one of the conference’s bowl slots.
If the Fighting Irish drop both of their final two games to UConn and Stanford – a definite possibility – some national analysts who follow Notre Dame closely say they could end up in Birmingham with a 6-6 mark.
Of course, USC would spend New Year’s Day in Birmingham (the game is scheduled for Jan. 2) only if they lost to Clemson, a gruesome thought for most Gamecock fans.
Right now, barring any unforeseen results, here’s how I see the bowl season lining up for the SEC:
BCS Championship Game: Alabama
Sugar (BCS): Florida
Capital One: LSU
Outback: Ole Miss
Cotton: Auburn
Chick-Fil-A: Georgia
Music City: USC
Liberty: Tennessee
Independence: Arkansas
Papajohns.com: Kentucky.
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Since Week l1 of the SEC schedule passed with few upsets, little has changed with the projected bowl lineup.
However, the number of bowl eligible teams increased to nine with Georgia, Kentucky and Arkansas all gaining that required sixth victory.
It remains my opinion that as many as five teams will finish 7-5, including South Carolina.
However, my view of who will win the SEC championship game has changed. Until seeing the Florida offense in person, I believed the Gators would win. But now I’m convinced the stout Alabama defense will shut down QB Tim Tebow and the UF offense. The Gators have one threat at wide receiver (Riley Cooper) and Tebow remains the primary running threat. That’s not enough against the senior-laden Alabama defense.
I think Alabama head coach Nick Saban, considered by some the preeminent defensive mind in the country, will figure out a way to stop Florida.
As a result, I’m predicting the Crimson Tide will run the table and earn a berth in the BCS Championship game against Texas.
A 12-1 Florida team should play in the Sugar Bowl for the first time since 2000.
LSU escaped Louisiana Tech, 24-16, and should go 2-0 in their final pair of regular season games against Ole Miss and Arkansas, giving them a final record of 10-2 and a spot in the Capital One Bowl.
However, if Ole Miss is able to knock off the Bayou Bengals this weekend in Oxford, the Rebels could land in Orlando one year after head coach Houston Nutt campaigned hard for a spot in that bowl.
Last week I forecasted Georgia, Tennessee and Arkansas would all win two of their final three games down the stretch, while USC would finish 1-1 with a win over Clemson.
Nothing occurred this past weekend to deviate from my prediction. Georgia should beat Kentucky at home Saturday night before facing Peach State rival Georgia Tech on Nov. 28. If the Bulldogs upset their in-state rival and finish 8-4, they could claim the Outback Bowl slot. However, the pick here is UGA will have a tough time stopping Tech’s option attack.
As for the other potential seven-win teams, Tennessee should be able to take care of Vanderbilt and Kentucky in their last two games, while Auburn will lose to Alabama on Nov. 27. Arkansas will bat Miss. State Saturday before falling to LSU in Baton Rouge.
Here’s my projected win breakdown for the SEC’s bowl eligible teams:
13 Wins: Alabama
12 Wins: Florida
10 Wins: LSU
9 Wins: None
8 Wins: Ole Miss
7 Wins: USC, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas.
6 Wins: Kentucky.
Eliminated: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt.
Setting the bowl lineup at the top is fairly easy. Florida and Alabama will participate in the BCS, while LSU will play a Big 10 team in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando.
I still believe the Cotton Bowl, which has first preference of teams from the SEC West after the BCS and Capital One Bowl picks, will bypass an eight-win Ole Miss team because the Rebels played in that bowl game last year.
I’ll again predict the Cotton Bowl will allow the Outback Bowl to take the Rebels. After that, the Cotton Bowl will take seven-win Auburn, although USC, Georgia or Tennessee could all end up there as well.
With local favorite Georgia likely available, the Chick-fil-A Bowl won’t be able to resist temptation or political pressure and will take the Bulldogs.
With Georgia off the board, that means the Music City and Liberty Bowl, both based in the Tennessee, will split the Gamecocks and the Vols. In my opinion, after speaking with the President and CEO of the Music City Bowl last week, he’s intrigued by a USC v. North Carolina matchup in Nashville and I got the sense that’s their ‘dream matchup.’
If USC loses to Clemson, they’ll likely fall to the Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham to face a Big East team. What could be intriguing about that is Notre Dame has an arrangement with the Big East (ND is a member of the Big East in basketball) that allows them to fill one of the conference’s bowl slots.
If the Fighting Irish drop both of their final two games to UConn and Stanford – a definite possibility – some national analysts who follow Notre Dame closely say they could end up in Birmingham with a 6-6 mark.
Of course, USC would spend New Year’s Day in Birmingham (the game is scheduled for Jan. 2) only if they lost to Clemson, a gruesome thought for most Gamecock fans.
Right now, barring any unforeseen results, here’s how I see the bowl season lining up for the SEC:
BCS Championship Game: Alabama
Sugar (BCS): Florida
Capital One: LSU
Outback: Ole Miss
Cotton: Auburn
Chick-Fil-A: Georgia
Music City: USC
Liberty: Tennessee
Independence: Arkansas
Papajohns.com: Kentucky.
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Scott Hood. Since February of 2005, Scott has covered the South Carolina football, men's basketball and baseball programs for GamecockCentral. He may be reached by email at scottblog(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.